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Market Commentary Today the all inclusive employment data is released.. Today the all inclusive employment data is released.
As noted several times jobless claims have fallen across all programs, both state and federal, for the reference weeks in today’s report. This suggests a possible decline in the headline
unemployment rate. However I also ask is this possible decline bona fide or only the result that benefits have been exhausted.
Regarding nonfarm payrolls and as noted yesterday,
could the data be skewed by seasonal factors as employers began to shed job massively last November?
All will also scrutinize average weekly hours worked
as often times greater hours worked is an indicator of potential hiring. During October weekly hours worked rose from a record low of 33 hours to 33.1 hours.
Consensus is expecting a 10.2% headline rate, a
125,000 decline in nonfarm payrolls and a 33.1 average work week.
Commenting briefly on yesterday’s market action,
the rally in stock stalled as the American service industries unexpectedly shrank. Consensus was expecting a 51.5 reading versus the announced 48.7 level. A number above fifty suggests
an expanding sector and vice versa. Selling accelerated late in the day over fears that today’s employment data will be disappointing.
Bonds traded lower on the news that the Treasury will auction $74 billion of notes and bonds next week.
Last night the foreign markets were down. London was down 0.41%, Paris down 0.41% and Frankfurt down 0.46%. Japan was up 0.45% and Hang Sang down 0.25%.
The Dow should open nominally higher but this could change radically given the significance of the upcoming data. The 10-year is up 2/32 to yield 3.37%.
The information is the personal views of Kent Engelke and is not necessarily indicative of those of Capitol Securities Management. The information contained herein has been compiled from sources believed to be reliable; however, there is no guarantee of its accuracy or completeness. Any opinions expressed here are statements of judgment on this date and are subject to certain risks and uncertainties which could cause actual results to differ materially from those currently anticipated or projected. Any future dividends, interest, yields and event dates listed may be subject to change. An investor cannot invest in an index, and its returns are not indicative of the performance of any specific investment. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Capitol Securities Management, Inc. is a Mid-Atlantic based, privately owned brokerage and investment firm with branch offices in Mclean and Richmond, VA, Boston MA, Hickory, NC, Florham Park, NJ and Tampa, FL. Capitol employs over 170 fulltime investment professionals and independent affiliates in locations from New England to Florida and has been serving the needs of its investors for over 25 years. It is a member of FINRA and SIPC. © Copyright 2008 Capitol Securities, Inc. All Rights Reserved. |
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