| 02.03.12 |
Today at 8:30 the all inclusive BLS employment data is released. I am expecting some give back from Decembers unexpected strength. However I also think trend growth of 170k is plausible given the peripheral data and assuming the above mentioned seasona |
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| 02.02.12 |
Stocks gained and treasuries fell amid signs that global manufacturing is strengthening. Commenting domestically, US manufacturing grew at the fastest pace since June. The UKs measure unexpectedly rose to an eight month high and reports showed surprisi |
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| 02.01.12 |
Markets were again relatively quiet even as the data modestly disappointed. All are exhausted, walking on egg shells, fearing yet another decline. Can we suggest because the markets have been relatively quiet in the face of current headlines and the sel |
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| 01.31.12 |
In my view the news out of Europe was ugly. Domestic equities ended relatively flat following an early morning triple digit decline. Treasuries gave up about half of their gains. Several months ago I wrote Europes influence is perhaps waning, stating |
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| 01.30.12 |
Fourth quarter GDP was a disappointment even though the economy expanded by the greatest amount since June 2010. Government statistics state the economy expanded by 2.8% versus an expected increase of 3.0%.
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| 01.27.12 |
Preliminary estimates of fourth quarter GDP is released at 8:30. Consensus is expecting a 3.0% growth rate, the greatest rate since the 2Q10. How will the data be interpreted? Many will ask is there any momentum? Or why is the rebound so anemic? There |
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| 01.26.12 |
Yesterday I wrote Januarys FOMC meeting should not be of great significance. I was wrong.
For the first time ever the Committee made its first ever Longer run and Policy Strategy statement. The Fed is now adopting an inflation target, a current t |
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| 01.25.12 |
Yesterdays market activity gave me more confidence the monoline apocalyptic European inevitable outcome is subsiding. Two months ago yesterdays headlines would have been the catalyst for a 400 point drubbing in equities and surge in treasury prices. Ma |
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| 01.24.12 |
Today is the start of the two day FOMC meeting. No change in policy is virtually assured, that is no change in the federal funds rate target. There will probably be no talk of QE3 for a myriad of reasons such as QE2 does not end until June and the impro |
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| 01.23.12 |
Has housing finally turned? Existing home sales rose for the third consecutive month in December to the highest level since January 2011. The gain pushed the number of homes available to sale to 2.38 million, the fewest since March 2005. At current pac |
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| 01.20.12 |
Is the negative news narrative in its final days? Yesterday initial jobless claims fell to the lowest level in four years all but reversing the prior weeks unexpected surge. Similar to last week, I think there is some seasonal distortion in the data wh |
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| 01.19.12 |
Stocks advanced again for a myriad of reasons. The IMF stated it may increase its resources in an attempt to be proactive towards any additional crisis. The largest banks have consistently reported increased loan demand and volume across the entire le |
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| 01.18.12 |
Has the European issue been fully discounted? Equities traded higher yesterday on speculation that China will ease monetary policy to avoid a greater economic slowdown. As widely noted Chinas economy grew by 8.9% in the fourth quarter, the slowest grow |
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| 01.17.12 |
Are US equities decoupling from Europe? Mid Friday afternoon it was announced that S & P stripped France and Austria of its AAA rating and banks suspended talks with Greece over its debt restructuring. Germany and the Netherlands ratings were not redu |
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| 01.13.12 |
After a long stretch of stronger than expected economic reports, two reports yesterday disappointed on the downside; retail sales and initial jobless claims. In my view these reports do not change my overall view of the economy but rather indicate the in |
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| 01.12.12 |
The so called Beige Book report summarizing information gathered from business leaders in the 12 Reserve Districts from late November through December resulted in an upgraded economic outlook. Seven districts described economic activity as modest while |
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| 01.11.12 |
Equities traded higher on earning and global economic optimism. Treasuries were nominally lower and spreads on non investment grade rated debt continued to narrow.
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| 01.10.12 |
As written yesterday fourth quarter earnings season has begun. Analysts are expecting a 6% increase in profits, the slowest profit growth since September 2009 given the perceived drag Europe has had upon the S & P 500 multinationals.
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| 01.09.12 |
In my view the employment report was solid and moderately better than expected. Total nonfarm payrolls rose 200K, 45K more than forecasted. Private jobs were up 212K versus the estimate of 178K. Private sector Jobs have now been created for 22 consecut |
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| 01.06.12 |
Will todays BLS labor report confirm the strength in yesterdays ADP Employment report? The ADP had a big upsize surprise stating 325K private sector jobs were added in December, the greatest gain on record. Consensus had estimated a 178K rise. Many ar |
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| 01.05.12 |
Is the recovery gaining momentum? Auto sales surprised on the upside and other retail sales data is suggesting continued strength. Today the influential ADP Private Sector employment index is released. Consensus is expecting an increase of 178K jobs. |
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| 01.04.12 |
Welcome to 2012. How will it be different than 2011? To remind all 2011 started out on a high note following 2010 real GDP growth of 3.1%, the fastest expansion since 2005. Last January equity bears and bond bulls were all but asleep.
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| 12.22.11 |
The year is quickly winding down and I think the two extraordinary events of the past weeks is the drop in Spanish and Italian debt yield as well as the strength of domestic data.
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| 12.21.11 |
Stocks rocked and treasuries sank as US housing starts topped expectations and German business confidence unexpectedly grew. Spain also had a successful debt offering. Volume however was light suggesting the rally/decline as suspect.
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| 12.20.11 |
2011 is quickly coming to an end and trading will certainly wane into the final days of the year. Treasury trading has already slowed considerably for as per Brokertecthe largest of the electronic inter-broker dealers--is running 17% below average thus |
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| 12.16.11 |
Stocks rallied as jobless claims hit a three year low suggesting an accelerating recovery. Equities were also boosted by a stronger than expected reading for a regional manufacturing index. Treasuries traded nominally lower.
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| 12.15.11 |
Stocks were weak again yesterday for a myriad of reasons. Doubts are rising over last weeks fiscal compact. The ECB remains officially on sovereign debt buying watch in the face of constant danger of a S & P downgrade for the EU. The Greek debt swa |
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| 12.14.11 |
The FOMC concluded its final 2011 meeting. The Committee stated the US is expanding moderately despite slowing global growth. The FOMC acknowledged some improvement in labor market conditions but said unemployment nevertheless remains elevated. R |
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| 12.13.11 |
Yesterday I expressed my concerns about the possible timely referendums that may be required to approve last weeks European fiscal compact. In my view the acknowledgement of this delay was a possible reason why equities sold off about 150 points. Mar |
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| 12.12.11 |
The fifth European summit in nineteen months ended Friday with the 17 nations utilizing the Euro agreeing to greater central control over individual countries budgets. It is my understanding that this will entail amending European Union treatiessubject |
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| 12.09.11 |
It is all about Europe. Stocks tumbled following the ECB announcement that it may not buy more sovereign debt and European bank regulators said its banks need to raise more capital than previously estimated. I ask is there yet another game of brinkmansh |
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| 12.08.11 |
Today commences the two day European Summit. As with the umpteen summits before expectations are high there will be an enforceable outcome. The headlines have been filled with numerous rumors leading up todays summit including an unnamed high ranking |
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| 12.07.11 |
Markets were at first little changed over concern that the European Financial Stability Fund (EFSF) may lose its top credit rating if some of the contributing members debt ratings are downgraded. While I dont think this is a shocka view initially vali |
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| 12.06.11 |
This could be seminal week for the European sovereign debt crisis as yet another summit is scheduled for December 8-9. Why would the outcome of this summit be any different than the umpteen number before that have resulted in no concrete resolutions or a |
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| 12.05.11 |
The December labor report contained elements of both strength and weakness, with the biggest surprise being the sharp drop in the unemployment rate from 9.0% to 8.60%. That decline partly reflected a 278K rise in household survey jobs, the fourth big inc |
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| 12.02.11 |
November's employment data is released today at 8:30. In my view this data will be pivotal in determining the sustainability of the current advance. On average, growth in private nonmanufacturing employment has been steady for most of this year posting |
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| 12.01.11 |
Stocks advanced strongly on strong global Central Bank coordination to reduce funding tensions. The Bank of Canada, Bank of England, The Bank of Japan, the ECB, the Federal Reserve and the Swiss National Bank stepped up and by some estimation took extrem |
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| 11.30.11 |
Stocks rose yesterday on strong consumer confidence data. In fact the index posted its greatest monthly advance since April 2003. The gauge is now at a four month high and its 56 reading exceeded even the most optimistic forecast. Perhaps more importan |
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| 11.28.11 |
There is absolute fear in the markets. Is the European contagion becoming a self fulfilling prophecy? Or is it similar to the typical hurricane reporting? Rarely does the hype surrounding an impending hurricane materialize because of so many other var |
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| 11.23.11 |
The data is consistently suggesting economic momentum. Revised third quarter growth was posted yesterday. Yes third quarter growth was revised down to 2.0% from the previously reported 2.50% estimate; however this reduced growth rate was the result of d |
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| 11.22.11 |
Thanksgiving is two days away and in market parlance some have asked what do we have to be thankful for? The volatility is incredible for as per Oppenheimer 2011 is the seventh most volatile on record since 1950. Political incompetence and lack of leade |
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| 11.21.11 |
The European debt crisis continues to drive down risk appetite as uncertainty over area countries ability to fund themselves is high. However, it is apparent as yields approach 7.0% the European Central Bank enters the secondary market and purchases debt |
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| 11.18.11 |
The uncertainty is incredible. Many fear the worst even as several US officials state European issues may be regional barring an all out collapse of the Euro. To date the talk has been greater than fallout given the strength of US data. Will this change |
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| 11.17.11 |
Stocks staged a late day sell off as Fitch Ratings stated further contagion from Europes debt crisis would pose a risk to American banks. Fitch further stated however the risk is 'manageable. Bloomberg states the six largest US banks have a $50 billi |
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| 11.16.11 |
Stocks gained nominally amid speculation the new Italian Minister designate will form a new government to battle the debt crisis. Moreover both retail sales and a regional manufacturing index are suggesting greater economic momentum than expected. |
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| 11.15.11 |
The easy part is done. Greece and Italy legislated fiscal austerity measures and forced their prime ministers to resign. Ok, maybe the legislating part was relatively easy given that a global financial crisis had to occur before the resignations |
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| 11.10.11 |
Italian debt yields also declined below the pivotal 7.0% level upon massive ECB intervention and a successful Italian note auction. |
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| 11.10.11 |
The negative news narrative returned with a vengeance yesterday. The initial concern was Italian debt yields topping 7% because of Italian political uncertainty. Tuesday Berlusconi's resignation was viewed as positive, yesterday a negative. |
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| 11.09.11 |
Equities were initially quiet given the uncertainty surrounding weakened European leadership. However by mid afternoon it was reported the Italian Prime Minister will resign and equities surged and the treasury fell. The market is demanding leadership |
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| 11.08.11 |
It appears Greece is perhaps finally put to bed and all attention is now focused on Italy. Yesterday yields on Italy's 10-year government bonds soared to 6.63% amid debt concerns and the unraveling of its government. Are investor's now beginning to shun |
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| 11.04.11 |
Life is indeed stranger than fiction. I don't think anyone could have imagined the events and the changing interpretations of these events that have occurred the past several days. Equities initially advanced yesterday on speculation that Greece was |
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| 11.03.11 |
Yesterday was a busy day. Commenting first upon the FOMC meeting, the FOMC held policy on hold and while acknowledging that significant downside risks to the economic outlook remain, offered a slightly brighter picture of the economy. The Committee stai |
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| 11.02.11 |
Why now? Why did the Greece Prime Minister shock the world by calling for a public referendum on the EU bailout plan? I cynically don't think this was a spur of the moment decision, wondering why the PM did not make his intentions known before such prog |
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| 11.01.11 |
As noted yesterday this week could be very interesting. In my view first and foremost is the follow through that must occur following the European Summit at the G-20 Summit being held November 3-4. (The G-20 is the 20 largest industrialized countries re |
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| 10.31.11 |
Where to now? As written Friday I believe the proverbial "risk on" trade will remain until mid November where at that time the outcome of the Super Committee will weigh upon the markets. What are the odds the Super Committee actually does its job? Expe |
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| 10.28.11 |
Stocks surged yesterday as European leaders agreed to expand a bailout fund to stem the region's debt crisis. It is my understanding the European bailout fund will be leveraged four or five times and investors have agreed to write down Greek debt by 50% |
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| 10.27.11 |
Wow! Life is stranger than fiction. Several times I cynically wrote Europe would delay action until the November 3-4 G-20 Summit, stating that Europe would ask this august group for bailout funds for the sovereign debt crisis is a global issue. Late ye |
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| 10.26.11 |
Little can be written about yesterday's market action. Equities fell amid earnings and economic reports that nominally disappointed and confusion over how much progress European leaders are making in debt crisis talks. |
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| 10.24.11 |
Treasury prices fell and stocks surged on Friday. In my view there was no specific news to support such strong equity gains, treasury rout. Regarding the European crisis finance, officials did meet on Friday where it was announced that Germany and France |
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| 10.21.11 |
The headlines are centered upon the European debt bailout funds which appear to be fluid. In general, the media is reporting a widening disagreement between France and Germany surrounding the size of this fund. As widely discussed, the markets are anti |
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| 10.20.11 |
Stocks were initially relatively quiet as yesterday's data and earnings releases generally exceeded expectations. Hopes were rising for a debt-crisis solution arising from the European Union summit on October 23. However during mid day equities reversed |
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| 10.19.11 |
Stocks advanced on earnings and a stronger than expected homebuilder sentiment survey. Equities gained further strength following German Chancellor Angela Merkel's comments that the European Union summit in five days will mark an important step, though no |
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| 10.18.11 |
Germany has attempted to lower expectations of the November 3 G-20 summit, the reason for yesterday's Wall Street decline. Obviously all are anxiously awaiting the outcome believing (perhaps hoping and praying) that Europe is finally ahead of the two yea |
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| 10.17.11 |
Global stocks have staged the greatest weekly advance since July 2009 on optimism the worst is behind. Domestically stocks have had its longest streak of weekly gains since April-two weeks--as the markets were cheered by stronger than expected retail sa |
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| 10.14.11 |
Equities were nominally lower and bonds nominally higher on the belief there is too much optimism imbedded in prices. The current equity rally/treasury drubbing began on October 4 when the S & P rallied 50 points in about 50 minutes on the hope of a Euro |
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| 10.13.11 |
A massive 'risk on' trade is at hand. The 10-year treasury has dropped in price for the sixth consecutive day as European leaders provided a road map of plans to recapitalize that region's banks and halt the sovereign debt crisis. Conversely, equity pri |
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| 10.12.11 |
Some believe it is the same ol same ol. That hope springs eternal and European politicians will do something substantive to resolve its debt crisis and recapitalize its banks. |
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| 10.11.11 |
Stocks soared yesterday as European financial authorities are speeding proposals to shore up shaky global banks ahead of what appears to be a Greek default. As written several times and as evidenced by Greek debt trading a $0.50/dollar and credit default |
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| 10.10.11 |
The September jobs report should soothe some fears the economy is in a recession. However, most will acknowledge employment gains are not enough to have sustainable trend growth. |
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| 10.07.11 |
Stocks advanced again yesterday on the news that the European Central Bank (ECB) will resume covered-bond purchases (assets backed by mortgages or public sector loans which underpin much of Europe's real estate lending) and reintroduce yearlong loans for |
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| 10.06.11 |
The next several days can be pivotal to determining the immediate direction of the markets. In my view, a perceived positive outcome in both events could produce a 7% to 10% advance in the markets.
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| 10.05.11 |
The volatility is horrific. The narrative is depressing. The collapse in asset values with the exception of treasuries and the dollar is sickening. When will it end? When we all least expect.
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| 10.04.11 |
What words can I use to describe current market action? Exhausting? Discouraging? Frightful? Unless one has been living in a cave, the quarter ended Friday was the worst performing quarter for the S & P 500 since fourth quarter 2008. Everything was c |
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| 09.27.11 |
The volatility is incredible, volatility that is really starting to profoundly impact investor psychology. As widely written, last week was the worst week for equities since October 2008 whereas per Bloomberg $1 trillion was erased from domestic stock |
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| 09.26.11 |
Relatively speaking, Friday was a quiet day. The European sovereign debt crisis just continues to fester and if it was not for coordinated central bank intervention European bank to bank trading/lending would be nonexistent. Domestically nothing really |
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| 09.23.11 |
What words can I use to describe the market? Ugly. Disaster. Dour. Pessimism is incredible as another recession is viewed as all but inevitable. The 10-year treasury is at an all time low yield of 1.71% and the thirty year treasury at 2.78% is quickly |
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| 09.22.11 |
Will "Operation Twist" work? The FOMC did even more than expected announcing it will sell $400 billion of short term Treasuries and buy $400 billion of long term Treasuries, plus now reinvesting maturing housing debt (agencies and MBS) back into MBS-mort |
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| 09.21.11 |
Stocks rose as investors speculated the Federal Reserve will take steps to shore up the economy and optimism that Greece will satisfy requirements for international aid. Will both come to fruition? Better yet, will the intended actions accomplish |
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| 09.20.11 |
The European sovereign debt crisis came back in full force yesterday as EU finance ministers have failed to come up with anything substantive other than reiterating that additional fiscal stimulus is not out of the question, an oxymoronic statement given |
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| 09.19.11 |
The Federal Reserve commences a two day meeting on Tuesday. Many are anticipating the central bank will embark upon Qe3 light, meaning any proceeds from maturing bonds and interest payments received the Federal Reserve. |
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| 09.16.11 |
Equities rallied again yesterday as the European Central Bank (ECB), the Federal Reserve and several other central banks extended unlimited three month dollar loans to euro-area banks in an effort to ensure they have enough cash for the rest of the year. |
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| 09.14.11 |
Stocks were nominally higher yesterday as all watched for signs of progress to stem Eurozone's debt crisis. |
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| 09.13.11 |
Three of the world's most powerful leaders have spoken in the last several days and unfortunately none had anything new to say, offering no political economic leadership. FRB Chairman echoed similar remarks that he spoke several weeks ago. |
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| 09.12.11 |
All are on edge as the inevitable is close to occurring |
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| 09.09.11 |
The President's Joint Session of Congress address came and went |
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| 09.08.11 |
Yesterday I wrote the markets have low expectations of tonight's Presidential address to a Joint Session of Congress |
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| 09.07.11 |
European sovereign debt fears were yesterday's primary trading catalyst |
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| 09.06.11 |
The August employment report was disappointing |
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| 09.02.11 |
Today the all inclusive Bureau of Labor and Statistics (BLS) Employment Report is released |
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| 09.01.11 |
Welcome to September, typically the worst month for equities given the strains upon the financial system |
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| 08.30.11 |
A reason why the market is so volatile is that the economy is close to stall speed |
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| 08.29.11 |
Volatility is an indicator of conviction |
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| 08.26.11 |
The volatility is intense |
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| 08.25.11 |
Stocks rose and gold plunged the most since 2008 after reports on durable goods orders and home prices beat estimates |
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| 08.24.11 |
Stocks staged their third largest advance of 2011 as the FDIC stated its 'Problem Bank List' declined for the first time since the third quarter of 2006 |
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| 08.11.11 |
The volatility is exhausting! |
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| 08.10.11 |
What words can I use to describe yesterday's volatility? Wow! Incredible! Mind numbing! Intense! |
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| 08.09.11 |
Equities were crushed on the downgrade and lack of leadership fearing economics shortfalls |
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| 08.08.11 |
Wow! Where to now? |
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| 08.04.11 |
Bloomberg reported yesterday that if stocks closed lower, US equities would have had their longest slump since 1978, sliding for the ninth consecutive day. |
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| 08.03.11 |
The market is now concerned the economy has slowed too dramatically, perhaps the result of the uncertainty surrounding the debt ceiling debate |
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| 08.02.11 |
What will be the economic impact of reduced government spending? |
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| 08.01.11 |
As I had expected a late eleventh hour compromise was reached to avert a default |
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| 07.29.11 |
Some have penned American democracy is broken. The process is so fractured, so dysfunctional that any remaining confidence has been shattered. |
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| 07.28.11 |
As expected the drama is incredible |
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| 07.27.11 |
Some have dismissed a downgrade of the US treasury as a non event |
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| 07.21.11 |
Little can be written about yesterday's market action |
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| 07.20.11 |
Equities rallied on stronger than expected earnings and housing starts. |
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| 07.19.11 |
Stocks fell yesterday amid concern officials are no closer to solving the debt crises in Europe. |
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| 07.18.11 |
As expected the rhetoric is rising to historic proportions on the debt ceiling. |
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| 07.12.11 |
The S & P sank again yesterday with stocks posting their greatest two day decline since March. |
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| 07.08.11 |
June's unemployment data is released at 8:30 |
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| 07.07.11 |
Stocks overcame early morning weakness, weakness the result of an expected Chinese interest rate increase and a nominally weaker than expected reading for the ISM non manufacturing index. |
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| 07.06.11 |
Eight days ago I was commenting about the unrelenting advance in treasury prices |
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| 07.05.11 |
About a week ago I wrote stocks may be subdued going into the Fourth, further suggesting the direction may be down. Wow! I was completely wrong as equities staged their largest weekly gain in a year |
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| 07.01.11 |
Stocks rose yesterday as the Greek parliament approved the mandated austerity package, erasing loses for the quarter. |
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| 06.29.11 |
Stocks gained and treasuries declined yesterday on speculation that the IMF/ECB/EU mandated austerity plan will pass today in Greek parliament |
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| 06.28.11 |
As per the Lundberg Survey, gasoline has dropped about $0.47 per gallon since mid May. |
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| 06.27.11 |
Equities after opening moderately lower held steady on a plethora of mixed news |
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| 06.24.11 |
The International Energy Agency (IEA), a Paris based 28 nation global energy consulting group, announced for the only the third time since its 1974 inception will release 60 million barrels of oil in the next thirty days. |
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| 06.23.11 |
The FOMC statement was pretty much as expected. |
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| 06.22.11 |
Stocks staged a handsome rally |
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| 06.21.11 |
Treasury prices as measured by the 10-year treasury rose for the tenth consecutive week, the longest streak on record |
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| 06.20.11 |
Equities staged their first up week in six weeks |
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| 06.15.11 |
Stocks staged their greatest advance in two months as higher than expected Chinese industrial output and American retail sales eased concern about a global economic slowdown. |
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| 06.14.11 |
Whiff of recession, heck even depression, is floating in the air |
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| 06.03.11 |
Equities were little changed yesterday waiting for today's pivotal Bureau of Labor (BLS) employment report. |
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| 06.01.11 |
Equities just posted their worst month since August 2010 |
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| 05.31.11 |
Stocks staged a light volume pre holiday advance |
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| 05.27.11 |
Markets reaction to disappointing data was subdued. |
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| 05.26.11 |
Stocks led by the commodity producers posted a marginal advance. |
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| 05.25.11 |
April new home sales unexpectedly rose by 7.3% to an annualized rate of 323K, the highest level since December |
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| 05.24.11 |
Stocks led by the commodity producers declined the most in two months over sovereign debt concerns. |
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| 05.19.11 |
Equities reversed an earlier day slide on the Minutes of the April 26-27 FOMC minutes. |
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| 05.18.11 |
Stocks traded moderately lower on economic and sovereign debt concerns. |
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| 05.17.11 |
Wow! What will historians write about current market activity? Debt ceilings reached and a dangerous game of one upsmanship. Unabating sovereign debt issues--amplified by a high profile sex scandal-- potentially destroying an economic union. |
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| 05.16.11 |
Friday there was little narrative to guide equities and stocks took the path of least resistance which was down. |
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| 05.13.11 |
The risk trade returned yesterday |
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| 05.12.11 |
Will global inflation will lead to higher interest rates? |
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| 05.11.11 |
Stocks rose yesterday on earnings and merger news. |
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| 05.10.11 |
Yesterday S & P lowered Greece's ratings |
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| 05.09.11 |
Shocked by the strength of April's unemployment data? |
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| 05.05.11 |
Equities under pressure |
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| 05.04.11 |
Where to now? |
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| 05.02.11 |
Equities are on an unrelenting earning inspired advanced. |
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| 04.29.11 |
Stocks advanced moderately |
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| 04.27.11 |
Interesting Day Ahead |
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| 04.26.11 |
Restore fiscal discipline. The time is ripe. |
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| 04.25.11 |
Earnings have Surpassed Expectations |
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| 04.21.11 |
Stocks surged yesterday |
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| 04.20.11 |
Will the once impossible happen? |
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| 04.18.11 |
2011 has been the year of surprises |
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| 04.14.11 |
Obama did his best to gain control of the political movement |
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| 04.13.11 |
Stocks dropped about 1% yesterday as oil staged the biggest two day decline in 11 months. |
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| 04.12.11 |
Hawks vs. Doves |
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| 04.08.11 |
It appears the government will shut down |
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| 04.06.11 |
Emerging split is now becoming evident |
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| 04.05.11 |
Dissention developing on the Federal Reserve Board? |
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| 04.05.11 |
Dissention developing on the Federal Reserve Board? |
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| 04.04.11 |
Unemployment data hit the proverbial sweet spot |
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| 04.01.11 |
Markets have essentially ignored both manmade and natural disasters |
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| 03.30.11 |
Jobs growth may be accelerating |
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| 03.28.11 |
Will March be regarded as the proverbial breakout month regarding job growth? |
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| 03.24.11 |
FOMC & Housing activity |
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| 03.23.11 |
All markets were relatively quiet yesterday |
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| 03.22.11 |
Stocks advanced strongly as the yen declined |
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| 03.21.11 |
Equities advanced again for a myriad of reasons. |
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| 03.18.11 |
Equities rose yesterday |
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| 03.16.11 |
Events that metaphorically describe huge happenings have occurred & earthquake, tsunami, nuclear fallout. |
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| 03.15.11 |
The Japanese earthquake/tsunami/nuclear meltdown is dominating the financial markets and headlines. |
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| 03.14.11 |
What impact will the earthquake in Japan have upon global economic activity? |
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| 03.11.11 |
Stocks dropped the most yesterday since August for a myriad of reasons |
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| 03.09.11 |
Stocks surged yesterday |
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| 03.08.11 |
Stocks under pressure |
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| 03.07.11 |
Unemployment Rate Encouraging |
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| 03.04.11 |
Stocks staged a strong rally |
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| 03.03.11 |
Rapid and unexpected chain of events |
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| 03.02.11 |
Stocks were crushed |
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| 02.14.11 |
What are the odds 2011 will be an incredible year both macro economically and geopolitically? |
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| 02.11.11 |
Treasury prices fell |
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| 02.09.11 |
Stocks gained again yesterday |
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| 02.08.11 |
Stocks advanced handsomely on strong global economic growth |
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| 02.07.11 |
Is this wild eyed optimism? |
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| 02.04.11 |
Post Traumatic Stress Disorder |
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| 02.02.11 |
Velocity of Change and Expect the Unexpected |
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| 02.01.11 |
A harbinger of things to come in other developing nations? |
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| 01.31.11 |
The velocity of change in incredible. |
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| 01.28.11 |
Fourth Quarter QDP & Recovery |
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| 01.27.11 |
No real substance |
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| 01.26.11 |
Will momentum continue? |
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| 01.25.11 |
State of the Union and Earning Season |
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| 01.24.11 |
Sales are exceeding estimates |
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| 01.21.11 |
Pent up demand is large. |
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| 01.20.11 |
December housing starts were disappointing |
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| 01.19.11 |
What is the odds 'demand pull' inflation will develop? |
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| 01.18.11 |
Recovery is gaining momentum |
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| 01.13.11 |
The velocity of change is incredible. |
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| 01.12.11 |
Will American taxpayers be asked to bail out Eurozone?
|
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| 01.11.11 |
Fourth quarter earnings are expected to rise by 9.8%.
|
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| 01.07.11 |
Economic pronouncements are now all about jobs.
|
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| 01.06.11 |
ADP private sector employment survey was incredible |
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| 01.06.11 |
Early Morning Commentary 1-5
|
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| 12.23.10 |
The market is faced with several high profile data points |
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| 12.23.10 |
The market is faced with several high profile data points |
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| 12.22.10 |
Treasury has already discounted a 3% fourth quarter growth rate |
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| 12.21.10 |
What will occur in the next three days... |
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| 12.17.10 |
Banks led the advance |
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| 11.12.10 |
The apparent market confusion is perhaps a harbinger of events to come |
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| 11.11.10 |
The markets have fully discounted QE2, the Republican victory and the potential extension of the Bush tax cuts |
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| 11.10.10 |
Thirty year treasury was trounced yesterday |
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| 11.09.10 |
Will the Fed overshoot its target? |
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| 11.05.10 |
Stocks rose yesterday to a two year high |
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| 11.04.10 |
Markets spent the day churning in a slim range |
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| 11.03.10 |
The Great Electorate has indeed been awakened. |
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| 11.02.10 |
Today is Election Day. |
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| 11.01.10 |
This week can be pivotal to the intermediate direction of the markets. |
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| 10.29.10 |
A high profile earnings missed overshadowed |
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| 10.28.10 |
Stocks traded lower on speculation |
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| 10.27.10 |
As noted yesterday |
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| 10.26.10 |
As written many times |
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| 10.25.10 |
The election is 8 days away |
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| 10.22.10 |
Stocks vacillated between gains |
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| 10.20.10 |
Stocks traded lower |
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| 10.19.10 |
Stocks advanced handsomely |
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| 10.18.10 |
Life is stranger than fiction |
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| 10.15.10 |
Stocks declined nominally |
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| 10.14.10 |
Stocks advanced handsomely |
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| 10.13.10 |
Inflationary expectations are a major |
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| 10.12.10 |
In my view FRB Chairman Ben Bernanke |
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| 10.11.10 |
September's employment report was a little |
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| 10.08.10 |
September's employment data |
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| 10.06.10 |
Stocks led by the financials |
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| 10.05.10 |
Markets traded lower yesterday |
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| 09.30.10 |
September is almost over |
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| 09.27.10 |
Stocks surged on Friday as non defense |
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| 09.24.10 |
Yesterday's Index of Leading Economic Indicators |
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| 09.23.10 |
There is little to comment about yesterday's market action |
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| 09.22.10 |
In my view, a view validated by flat equities |
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| 09.21.10 |
Stocks advanced on earning and acquisition news |
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| 09.20.10 |
Last week the markets were relatively flat |
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| 09.16.10 |
The markets were again quiet yesterday |
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| 09.15.10 |
There is little to write about yesterday's market action |
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| 09.14.10 |
Stocks rallied again yesterday |
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| 09.10.10 |
The markets are in the process of unwinding |
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| 09.09.10 |
Stocks rebounded from Tuesday's decline |
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| 09.08.10 |
The question at hand is the economy growing |
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| 09.07.10 |
In my view, on balance the employment report |
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| 09.03.10 |
The general view on today's employment report |
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| 09.02.10 |
Stocks surged the most since May yesterday |
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| 09.01.10 |
Many times I have commented about |
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| 08.31.10 |
Pessimism is intense |
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| 08.26.10 |
The negative news flow is incredible |
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| 08.25.10 |
The second dippers and deflationists |
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| 08.24.10 |
The rhetorical question of the day is |
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| 08.23.10 |
Equities declined in light volume trading |
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| 08.20.10 |
The negative news narrative rose to a possible crescendo |
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| 08.19.10 |
Equities overcame early morning weakness |
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| 08.18.10 |
Equities staged a handsome advance |
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| 08.17.10 |
The negative news flow narrative is continuing |
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| 08.16.10 |
Friday was the epitome of the summer doldrums |
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| 08.13.10 |
It appears the 'New Normalers' |
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| 08.12.10 |
As penned yesterday my concern |
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| 08.11.10 |
What will be the impact |
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| 08.10.10 |
Today is the Federal Reserve's Open Market Committee |
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| 08.06.10 |
July's unemployment data is released at 8:30 |
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| 08.05.10 |
Markets were again relatively quiet yesterday |
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| 08.04.10 |
The markets were relatively quiet |
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| 08.03.10 |
Stocks advanced handsomely |
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| 08.02.10 |
Second quarter GDP was nominally disappointing |
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| 07.30.10 |
On June 30 I wrote there is a strong probability |
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| 07.29.10 |
Fiscal spending is one of the greatest issues |
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| 07.28.10 |
Markets were relatively flat yesterday |
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| 07.27.10 |
Stocks advanced again |
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| 07.26.10 |
Stocks advanced again on Friday |
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| 07.23.10 |
Stocks advanced handsomely as earnings and forward |
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| 07.22.10 |
Equities were disappointed with the FRB Chairman's congressional testimony. |
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| 07.21.10 |
Stocks staged an impressive rebound |
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| 07.20.10 |
After a brief respite it appears as though sentiment |
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| 07.15.10 |
All markets were relatively quiet yesterday |
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| 07.14.10 |
Stocks advanced again yesterday as Alcoa |
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| 07.13.10 |
Investor pessimism is intense. |
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| 07.12.10 |
Second quarter earnings season commences tonight |
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| 07.09.10 |
Stocks rose for the third consecutive day |
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| 07.08.10 |
Stocks surged the most in one day since May |
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| 07.07.10 |
Bearishness appears to be the universal outlook |
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| 07.06.10 |
In my view June's unemployment data was disappointing. |
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| 07.02.10 |
Will June's unemployment data |
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| 07.01.10 |
The Dow declined about 10% for the quarter. |
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| 06.30.10 |
It is really getting ugly. |
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| 06.29.10 |
In my view the odds of a substantial move in the markets |
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| 06.28.10 |
The most sweeping overhaul of US financial |
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| 06.25.10 |
Where are we going? |
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| 06.24.10 |
In my view the FOMC meeting was a non event. |
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| 06.23.10 |
Until the last hour of trading |
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| 06.22.10 |
The two day FOMC meeting commences today. |
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| 06.21.10 |
Equities were quiet Friday. |
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| 06.18.10 |
Stocks closed modestly higher |
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| 06.17.10 |
Stocks closed essentially unchanged |
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| 06.16.10 |
Stocks rocked as growth in New York |
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| 06.15.10 |
Perhaps the only concrete statement to make |
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| 06.04.10 |
All are looking for a hero |
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| 06.03.10 |
Stocks rallied on a stronger than expected |
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| 06.02.10 |
The list of negatives appears endless |
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| 06.01.10 |
Stocks slid Friday as a downgrade of Spain's debt |
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| 05.28.10 |
Stocks staged a handsome rally |
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| 05.27.10 |
A case can be made the panic in the financial markets |
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| 05.25.10 |
As evidenced by the huge volume in treasuries |
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| 05.21.10 |
Stocks were again hammered on European concerns |
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| 05.19.10 |
The tug of war is continuing |
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| 05.18.10 |
As penned last week all the European debt rescue |
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| 05.17.10 |
In my view there is a tug of war between strong economic data |
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| 05.14.10 |
Stocks for a large part of the day traded |
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| 05.12.10 |
Stocks were volatile again yesterday. |
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| 05.11.10 |
Stocks surged as the EU, IMF, the ECB |
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| 05.10.10 |
Perhaps the $64,000 question will there be an European Contagion |
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| 05.05.10 |
A combination of a slowing Chinese manufacturing |
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| 05.04.10 |
Stocks rocked on stronger than expected economic data. |
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| 05.03.10 |
Market direction is dependent |
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| 04.30.10 |
First quarter GDP is released today. |
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| 04.28.10 |
Life is indeed stranger than fiction |
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| 04.27.10 |
The two day FOMC meeting starts today. |
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| 04.26.10 |
New home sales surged 26% in March |
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| 04.22.10 |
Today housing and inflation data are released. |
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| 04.21.10 |
The markets are becoming more convinced the Goldman |
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| 04.20.10 |
Stocks overcame early selling to close |
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| 04.19.10 |
Equities declined about 1.25% as the SEC |
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| 04.16.10 |
Stocks rallied on earning and economic optimism. |
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| 04.14.10 |
Markets were relatively unchanged yesterday. |
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| 04.13.10 |
Earning season has commenced. |
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| 04.12.10 |
Earning season commences this evening |
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| 04.09.10 |
Sovereign debt risk is again at the forefront |
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| 04.08.10 |
Several months ago it appeared the prevailing view was |
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| 04.07.10 |
Over the last 24 hours the details of the Greek bailout |
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| 04.06.10 |
As expected and as evidenced by recent data |
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| 04.01.10 |
Tomorrow the all inclusive unemployment data is released |
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| 03.31.10 |
Relatively good economic news could not overcome |
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| 03.30.10 |
As noted yesterday 10 and 30 year treasury yields are up |
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| 03.29.10 |
Former FRB Chairman Alan Greenspan stated Friday |
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| 03.26.10 |
Stocks initially gained yesterday |
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| 03.25.10 |
It appears Germany, France and the rest of the European Union |
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| 03.24.10 |
Equities advanced handsomely yesterday |
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| 03.23.10 |
Where to next? |
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| 03.22.10 |
Stocks ended lower Friday on quiet trading. |
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| 03.19.10 |
Life is indeed stranger than fiction. |
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| 03.18.10 |
Stocks advanced again yesterday to a 17 month high |
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| 03.17.10 |
The Federal Reserve has kept the overnight rate |
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| 03.16.10 |
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meets today. |
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| 03.15.10 |
Several weeks ago I wrote there is a possibility |
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| 03.12.10 |
In my view the credit markets are bifurcated. |
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| 03.11.10 |
The familiar refrain "Never Short A Dull Market" is echoing. |
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| 03.10.10 |
In my view nothing much went on in the various US markets yesterday. |
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| 03.09.10 |
In my view one thing that is becoming clearer |
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| 03.08.10 |
Equities staged a strong advance |
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| 03.05.10 |
The all inclusive unemployment data is released today at 8:30. |
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| 03.04.10 |
Currents and cross currents is perhaps an overriding theme |
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| 03.03.10 |
Can I suggest to the disdain of politicians |
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| 03.02.10 |
The level of uncertainty is huge. |
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| 03.01.10 |
Has the risk adverse trade returned? |
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| 02.26.10 |
Stocks were initially pummeled yesterday |
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| 02.25.10 |
Equities advanced handsomely |
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| 02.24.10 |
As noted many times transitions are always volatile. |
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| 02.23.10 |
Tomorrow FRB Chairman Bernanke begins |
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| 02.22.10 |
In my view participants in the various markets are still |
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| 02.19.10 |
Stocks rose as economic and earnings reports boosted optimism |
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| 02.18.10 |
In my view yesterday's release of real sector data was solidly decent. |
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| 02.17.10 |
In my view yesterday's trading was confusing. |
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| 02.11.10 |
In my view economic cycles are always the same. |
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| 02.10.10 |
Stocks rallied on a better than expected |
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| 02.08.10 |
On balance I believe January's employment data |
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| 02.05.10 |
Stocks were crushed yesterday from sovereign debt fears |
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| 02.04.10 |
Markets were relatively quiet yesterday |
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| 02.03.10 |
Stocks surged for a second day |
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| 02.02.10 |
Stocks staged a handsome advance on a stronger than expected |
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| 02.01.10 |
In my view fourth quarter GDP was considerably stronger |
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| 01.29.10 |
Markets traded to their lowest levels |
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| 01.28.10 |
Stocks were modestly higher and bonds modestly lower following the conclusion |
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| 01.27.10 |
The two day FOMC meeting concludes today. |
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| 01.26.10 |
Stocks rebounded nominally yesterday |
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| 01.25.10 |
The markets are still reeling from the Administration plans |
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| 01.22.10 |
Stocks came under pressure |
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| 01.21.10 |
Stocks tumbled yesterday by the greatest amount since November |
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| 01.20.10 |
Many times I discuss the "Velocity of Change." |
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| 01.19.10 |
Stocks came under pressure as revenues at JP Morgan |
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| 01.15.10 |
Data released this week has suggested an anemic economy |
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| 01.13.10 |
As written yesterday earning season started with a fizzle |
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| 01.12.10 |
As noted several times there few absolutes in the markets. |
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| 01.11.10 |
In my view the employment report for December was somewhat weaker |
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| 01.08.10 |
As noted yesterday December stands a reasonable chance |
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| 01.07.10 |
Equities were relatively quiet yesterday |
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| 01.06.10 |
Markets were relatively quiet following mixed economic data. |
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| 01.05.10 |
A New Year and decade has begun. |
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| 12.23.09 |
Equities advanced yesterday on the strongest existing home sales in three years. Sales were up |
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| 12.22.09 |
Something has to give. |
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| 12.18.09 |
Stocks came under pressure yesterday. |
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| 12.17.09 |
Was the FOMC statement virtually as expected? |
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| 12.16.09 |
Around 2:15 today the Federal Reserve will issue its post meeting statement. |
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| 12.15.09 |
What is the underlying strength of the economy? |
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| 12.14.09 |
Stocks advanced Friday as consumer confidence and retail sales increased more than expected in November. |
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| 12.11.09 |
The yield curve between the two year and thirty year treasury is the widest since at least 1980 as per Bloomberg. |
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| 12.09.09 |
Equities declined and treasuries advanced moderately on the news that Greece |
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| 12.08.09 |
The $64,000 question is whether one fully believes the November labor data. |
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| 12.07.09 |
The worst unemployment slump in the post World War II era may be about to end. |
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| 12.04.09 |
Today the all inclusive employment data is released. |
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| 12.03.09 |
None of the financial markets did much of anything yesterday. |
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| 12.02.09 |
In my view the statistics were consistent with a sustainable recovery. |
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| 11.30.09 |
Last week's economic reports spurred optimism that the economic recovery is strengthening. |
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| 11.25.09 |
When will banks begin to lend? |
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| 11.24.09 |
Revised third quarter GDP is announced today. |
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| 11.20.09 |
Stocks declined yesterday on fears the rally has outpaced the prospects for economic growth. |
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| 11.18.09 |
The markets were relatively quiet yesterday |
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| 11.17.09 |
Stocks advanced again after an increase |
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| 11.12.09 |
As widely noted there is about $1.4 trillion in commercial real estate debt |
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| 11.11.09 |
There is little I can write about yesterday's market action. |
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| 11.09.09 |
The headlines of the vast majority of newspapers carried the headline |
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| 11.05.09 |
The Federal Reserve restated its intention to keep interest rates |
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| 11.04.09 |
In my view the volatility in the markets is perplexing |
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| 11.02.09 |
It is all about sustainability. |
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| 10.30.09 |
As widely noted the economy expanded for the first time in four quarters growing |
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| 10.29.09 |
Stocks traded lower again. |
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| 10.28.09 |
Yesterday's data was conflicting. |
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| 10.27.09 |
Stock and bonds both came under pressure while the dollar rallied. |
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| 10.26.09 |
When will bank lending resume? |
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| 10.21.09 |
Stocks came under some much needed profit taking |
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| 10.19.09 |
Industrial Production during September rose three times as much as expected |
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| 10.16.09 |
Have equities gone too far? |
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| 10.14.09 |
Have equities discounted third quarter earnings |
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| 10.13.09 |
Several days ago I wrote what some viewed as politically charged remarks. |
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| 10.12.09 |
Treasuries were crushed Friday. |
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| 10.09.09 |
Stocks rallied handsomely on better than expected earnings |
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| 10.08.09 |
Earning season has commenced. |
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| 10.06.09 |
Several weeks ago I was wrote either bond investors or stock investors have to be wrong |
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| 10.05.09 |
In my view September's Employment report was on balance disappointing. |
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| 10.02.09 |
Stocks came under pressure as the national gauge of manufacturing activity unexpectedly declined |
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| 09.29.09 |
Stocks staged a handsome merger induced advance. |
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| 09.28.09 |
Stocks had the biggest weekly decline since July as lower than estimated data on durable goods orders and home sales overshadowed improvement in consumer confidence. |
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| 09.28.09 |
Stocks had the biggest weekly decline since July as lower than estimated data on durable goods orders and home sales overshadowed improvement in consumer confidence. |
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| 09.24.09 |
The FOMC upgraded its assessment of the economy albeit risks remain. |
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| 09.23.09 |
The third quarter is quickly winding down and we are rapidly approaching the strongest seasonal period in the markets |
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| 09.22.09 |
The Index of Leading Economic Indicators (LEI) rose big for the fifth consecutive month |
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| 09.21.09 |
The Federal Reserve's Open Market Committee meets tomorrow and Wednesday. |
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| 09.17.09 |
I think it is safe to write the credit crisis is over. |
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| 09.15.09 |
In my view the President's speech yesterday was a non event |
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| 09.09.09 |
I believe the next major issue facing the markets will be the potential impact of when the central banks changes monetary policy. |
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| 09.08.09 |
In my view the August labor report was on balance mixed, not too different from expectations. |
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| 09.04.09 |
At least to me yesterdays release of the nonmanufacturing ISM index was disappointing. |
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| 09.03.09 |
Trading was relatively quiet yesterday |
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| 09.02.09 |
The ISM Manufacturing Index expanded for the first time since January 2008 |
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| 09.01.09 |
We are entering the dreaded month of September |
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| 08.25.09 |
There is little I can write about yesterday's trading. |
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| 08.24.09 |
Stocks soared on the 7.2% surge in existing home sales |
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| 08.21.09 |
Stocks ended higher yesterday for the third consecutive day |
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| 08.20.09 |
Most were searching for a reason why stocks rallied yesterday. |
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| 08.18.09 |
Stocks came under further profit taking as some are questioning the strength and durability of the Chinese recovery. |
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| 08.14.09 |
Yesterday's data was a reminder that any transition is never linear. |
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| 08.13.09 |
In my view Fed policy essentially remained unchanged albeit the Central Bank was more sanguine about the economy. |
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| 08.11.09 |
Stocks came under some much needed profit taking following four straight weeks of gains. |
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| 08.10.09 |
July's unemployment data is the clearest sign the worst slump since the Depression may be ending. |
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| 08.07.09 |
Today the inclusive unemployment data is released. |
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| 08.06.09 |
The ADP Employment report was weaker than expected. |
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| 08.05.09 |
The number of contracts to buy previously owned homes rose in June |
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| 08.04.09 |
Will today's pending home sales validate yesterday's ISM data? |
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| 08.03.09 |
In my view the shift in growth expectations that has occurred during the last two weeks |
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| 07.31.09 |
Today the advance estimate of second quarter GDP is released. |
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| 07.29.09 |
The S & P/Case-Shiller home price index rose 0.5% in May from the prior month |
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| 07.28.09 |
Friday preliminary estimates of second quarter GDP is released. |
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| 07.23.09 |
Transition points are always murky. |
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| 07.22.09 |
In my view FRB Chairman Bernanke's Congressional testimony was balanced and similar |
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| 07.21.09 |
The Index of Leading Economic Indicators rose in June by 0.7% |
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| 07.20.09 |
The S & P rose last week 6.5%, its greatest advance since March |
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| 07.17.09 |
Stocks were relatively flat yesterday until Nouriel Roubini-aka Dr. Doom-stated the worst of the financial crisis is over and the recession will end this year. |
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| 07.16.09 |
Stocks rocked yesterday on Intel's earnings and its positive forward looking statement. |
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| 07.15.09 |
There is little that can be written about yesterdays market activity. |
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| 07.14.09 |
Stocks staged a handsome rally following four consecutive weeks of losses |
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| 07.13.09 |
Inflection points are always confusing. |
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| 07.10.09 |
Where are we going? |
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| 07.08.09 |
As stated yesterday I believe earnings will exceed expectations given the dearth of preannouncements. |
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| 07.07.09 |
Economic data are always mixed and confusing at inflection points. |
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| 07.06.09 |
In my view June's employment report was somewhat weaker than expected |
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| 07.02.09 |
Today the all inclusive employment data is released. |
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| 06.30.09 |
The S & P 500 is poised to register its best quarterly advance since 1998. |
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| 06.29.09 |
Several weeks ago I wrote about the Zarnowitz Rule |
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| 06.25.09 |
The two day meeting of the FOMC meeting has concluded. |
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| 06.24.09 |
In some aspects one can conclude the credit crisis is in its waning days. |
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| 06.23.09 |
The second quarter is quickly winding down. |
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| 06.22.09 |
This week can be pivotal in determining the immediate direction of the markets. |
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| 06.19.09 |
Stocks yesterday staged a handsome rally as the data is suggesting the economy is on the verge of a sustainable recovery. |
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| 06.18.09 |
In my view little can be written about yesterday's market activity. |
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| 06.17.09 |
During the first half of yesterdays trading the markets did almost nothing.. |
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| 06.16.09 |
Falling oil and metal prices weighed on commodity producers that sent equities down by the greatest amount in over a month. |
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| 06.15.09 |
Most will agree the credit markets are healing. |
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| 06.10.09 |
In my view yesterdays treading was non descript even though the headlines suggested potentially otherwise. |
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| 06.09.09 |
In my view the worst of the recession is over. |
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| 06.08.09 |
Most will state Mays employment data was much stronger than expected. |
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| 06.05.09 |
Mays unemployment data is released today. |
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| 06.04.09 |
In my view the ADP Employment Report offered no surprises |
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| 06.02.09 |
Stocks surged on the ISM, New Construction data and Personal Spending/Income statistics further validating the view the worst is over for the economy. |
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| 06.01.09 |
The leading national manufacturing index - the ISM - is released today. |
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| 05.29.09 |
Mortgage defaults surged to an all time high; partially the result of the ending of the three month moratorium on foreclosures. |
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| 05.28.09 |
Demand is great for the US Treasury as stories of waning demand appear to be only hubris. |
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| 05.27.09 |
The biggest jump in consumer confidence since 2003 spurred optimism the worst in the recession is over sending stocks higher for the first time in five days. |
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| 05.26.09 |
In my view the fear factor is dropping rapidly as evidenced by ... |
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| 05.22.09 |
I believe within the next 90-120 days two major topics of discussions could be when ... |
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| 05.20.09 |
I think it is safe to write the worst of the financial crisis has now passed. |
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| 05.19.09 |
Several housing data points are released this week. |
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| 05.18.09 |
In my view we have had our cataclysmic fall and our euphoric rise. |
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| 05.15.09 |
In my view we are still in a pullback mode for the markets with little over reaction to negative data. |
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| 05.14.09 |
Equities were reminded yesterday recoveries are uneven. |
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| 05.12.09 |
Several weeks ago I wrote there is a 25% probability the economy could grow in the second quarter |
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| 05.11.09 |
April's unemployment data suggested the economy has stabilized. |
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| 05.08.09 |
Today the all inclusive April employment data will be released. |
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| 05.07.09 |
Stocks closed at a four month high yesterday as some speculated banks might not need as much additional capital as feared. |
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| 05.04.09 |
Fridays trading was nondescript, closing moderately higher on a late day surge. |
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| 05.01.09 |
April the S & P 500 posted a 9.4% advance, the largest monthly gain since March 2000 |
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| 04.30.09 |
Stocks rose yesterday for a myriad of reasons. |
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| 04.29.09 |
Consumer confidence jumped by the largest amount since 2005; rising to a five month high. |
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| 04.28.09 |
Is a pandemic at hand and if so how will it impact the economy? |
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| 04.27.09 |
Stocks advanced again Friday as companies across a broad spectrum of industries exceeded expectations. |
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| 04.23.09 |
Stocks were advancing yesterday on profit optimism until a late day headline stating |
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| 04.22.09 |
Stocks staged a handsome financial led rally yesterday ... |
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| 04.21.09 |
In my view yesterday the markets led by the financials came under intense profit taking following the sharpest six week gain since 1938. |
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| 04.20.09 |
The Dow has advanced for five consecutive weeks, |
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| 04.17.09 |
Three down and three to go. |
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| 04.16.09 |
I believe the next several days will be critical for the markets. |
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| 04.14.09 |
In the coming days the strength of the financials (and the markets) will be validated or nullified as Citigroup, Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan Chase announce earnings. |
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| 04.13.09 |
Are banks finally shaking off the global credit crunch? |
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| 04.09.09 |
Earning season starts in earnest next week. As widely discussed expectations are low for the exception of the financials. |
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| 04.07.09 |
In my view stocks came under profit taking predicated upon continued nervousness about the health of the banking system, the collapse of a high profile merger and increased fear of governmental intrusion into the private sector. |
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| 04.06.09 |
The March US employment rate of 8.5% is the highest since November 1983 as the economy is mired in the worst recession since the 1930s. |
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| 04.03.09 |
Equities are trading as though the worst is over for the global economy. |
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| 04.02.09 |
Stocks advanced for a second day as sales of existing homes unexpectedly increased and the ISM Manufacturing Index [survey of manufacturers] rose for the third consecutive month. |
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| 04.01.09 |
Equities staged the largest monthly rally since 2003 on speculation the worst is over for the financial system and the economy. |
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| 03.31.09 |
In my view stocks came under considerable profit taking following the sharpest monthly advance since the 1930s as per Bloomberg. |
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| 03.20.09 |
I believe stocks declined yesterday on profit taking utilizing nervousness over the pending Fed plan to buy over $1 trillion in bonds as the excuse for such profit taking. |
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| 03.19.09 |
The Federal Reserve stated yesterday it plans to buy $300 billion in Treasury securities and $750 billion more of agency and mortgage debt in an effort to bolster housing and hasten the end of the recession. |
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| 03.17.09 |
Yesterday equities were posting a 150 point mid day advance only to close nominally lower. |
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| 03.16.09 |
As written several times all believe the rebound in the markets is nothing more than a dead cat bounce and a "retest" of the lows is all but inevitable. |
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| 03.13.09 |
What are the possibilities of a market "melt up?" |
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| 03.12.09 |
The financials outperformed the broader markets again yesterday as yet another large money center bank--JP Morgan also stated they were profitable in both January and February. |
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| 03.11.09 |
Yesterday stocks - led by the financials--staged the greatest advance of the year for a number of reasons. |
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| 03.10.09 |
As widely written the S & P dropped about 38% in 2008, the steepest decline since 1937. |
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| 03.09.09 |
The unemployment rate in February jumped to 8.1%, the highest level in more than a quarter of century. |
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| 03.06.09 |
As per The American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) recent survey, pessimism is at the highest reading since the index's creation in 1987. |
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| 03.05.09 |
As widely noted the 6.2% drop in fourth quarter GDP was the sharpest since 1982. |
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| 03.03.09 |
The sense of unending gloom is huge. |
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| 03.02.09 |
There are very few words one could use to describe this unending nightmare. |
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| 02.23.09 |
When will it end? The financials have been obliterated. |
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| 02.19.09 |
It is not a stretch to write society and the economy has undergone a tectonic change but it might not be the change embraced by the current administration-populist socialism. |
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| 02.13.09 |
Stocks initially traded substantially lower on fears that President Obama's stimulus plan will be insufficient to avert the deepest recession since 1946. |
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| 02.11.09 |
As widely noted Treasury Secretary's Geithner's plan to stabilize the banking system lacked details to give confidence as whether it will work or not. |
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| 02.10.09 |
Treasury Secretary Geithner is scheduled to announce the latest financial bailout plan today at 11:00. |
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| 02.09.09 |
Today's widely anticipated speech by Treasury Secretary Geithner, pivotal in shaping the market's view that the worst for the financials are over, was delayed by one day. |
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| 02.05.09 |
When will it end? |
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| 02.04.09 |
Stocks gained for the first day in four, the result of better than expected earnings from several defensive drug manufactures. |
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| 02.03.09 |
The news has been horrible but equities have not made a new low and treasuries have been killed. |
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| 02.02.09 |
As widely discussed January's 8.6% decline in the S & P 500 was the greatest on record eclipsing the previous record of the 7.6% drop established in 1970. |
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| 01.30.09 |
Why are treasuries getting crushed given the endless negative headlines? |
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| 01.29.09 |
Stocks rose on the news that President Obama is prepared to set up a "bad bank" to absorb toxic investments. |
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| 01.28.09 |
The news is horrific. |
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| 01.27.09 |
In my view yesterday was a significant day. |
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| 01.26.09 |
Volatility in the markets has returned with a vengeance as every day last week stocks experienced triple digit moves. |
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| 01.22.09 |
Financials led a strong equity rebound led on speculation that a plan from President Obama will shore up banks. |
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| 01.21.09 |
Stocks were crushed yesterday. |
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| 01.20.09 |
If I were witty I would title today's comments Nightmare on Wall Street 281. |
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| 01.16.09 |
Are equities going retro as the year to date decline is 6.4%, the worst start of any year for the exception of a 6.6% drop experienced in 1939 as per Dow Jones? |
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| 01.14.09 |
Another piece of evidence is suggesting the credit market is continuing to thaw. |
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| 01.12.09 |
December's unemployment rate rose to 7.2%, the highest level since January 1993. |
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| 01.09.09 |
As written Tuesday my optimism is at a two year high. |
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| 01.06.09 |
We enter 2009 in an ugly bearish mood given the utter decimation that occurred in 2008 as there was no place to hide. |
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| 12.23.08 |
I believe today's headlines are the result of the complete meltdown that began with the bankruptcy filing of Lehman Brothers |
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| 12.18.08 |
Oil closed last night at $40.15 after trading as low as $39.88, the lowest since July 2004. |
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| 12.17.08 |
Dramatic times calls for dramatic action. |
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| 12.16.08 |
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting ends today. |
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| 12.15.08 |
There is only one word to describe the headlines-horrific. |
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| 12.12.08 |
My initial comments for today might appear meaningless given the events of last night. |
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| 12.09.08 |
Many are stating we have entered the most severe recession since the 43 month depression of 1929-1933. |
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| 12.04.08 |
Stocks rallied on the news mortgage applications surged |
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| 12.03.08 |
Are treasuries the next bubble to burst? |
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| 12.02.08 |
It is official. |
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| 11.26.08 |
As written many times the primary objective of the Federal Reserve is to be the banker's banker |
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| 11.25.08 |
The market rallied sharply on Citigroup bailout II |
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| 11.24.08 |
What a mess. |
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| 11.21.08 |
What can be written about the markets? |
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| 11.20.08 |
What words can we use to describe yesterday's market action? |
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| 11.19.08 |
Approximately six months ago I wrote there was a possibility by December deflation |
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| 11.18.08 |
At some point we will hit bottom. |
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| 11.17.08 |
What is the depth of the recession and how will the markets respond? |
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| 11.10.08 |
Most economists are expecting a long and deep recession, but how long and how deep? |
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| 11.07.08 |
Stocks just experienced the worst two days since 1987. |
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| 11.06.08 |
Stocks fell yesterday as the data reminded all the new administration is facing a probable recession |
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| 11.05.08 |
Wow! I think most will conclude the electorate has loudly spoken. |
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| 11.04.08 |
Today is Election Day. Vote! It is the basic tenant of democracy. |
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| 11.03.08 |
The central banks finally have cracked interbank rates |
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| 10.31.08 |
All are happy to bid October goodbye. It has been an extraordinary difficult month |
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| 10.29.08 |
Stocks staged the second best point gain on record yesterday |
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| 10.28.08 |
Equities staged a late day sell off ending lower between 2.5% and 3.1% |
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| 10.27.08 |
Something is wrong if we think a 3.6% Dow decline as acceptable |
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| 10.24.08 |
It is often written that there are no atheists in foxholes |
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| 10.23.08 |
The S & P 500 closed at the lowest level since April 2003. |
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| 10.22.08 |
The short term credit markets are continuing to thaw |
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| 10.20.08 |
The volatility is incredible. Where are we going? |
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