ARE WE IN THE MOTHER OF DOGS DAY OF SUMMER?

Treasuries rallied, the dollar and equities fell after data showing stalling retail sales and a benign PPI.  All added to speculation that the Federal Reserve will be in rush to raise interest rates this year.  Gold and oil advanced.

The final two weeks of summer typically are the slowest times on Wall Street.  As noted last week, the S & P has now gone 25 consecutive days without moving 1% in either direction, the longest stretch since 2014.  Will this streak be extended to 39 days given the historical seasonal lethargy?

Have all become too complacent or does the averages mask the underlying inter day volatility and violence in other markets?  I believe the latter using oil as an example.  Crude fell about 22% and then rallied about 15% from lows posted about 10 days ago.

What will happen this week?  The economic calendar consists of several housing statistics, the CPI and LEI, Capacity Utilization/Industrial Production, as well as the Minutes from the July FOMC meeting.  How will these releases influence perception?

Last night the foreign markets were up.  London was up 0.25%, Paris up 0.06%, and Frankfurt 0.32%.  China was up 2.51%, Japan down 0.03%, and Hang Sang up 0.73%.

The Dow should open little changed.   The 10-year is unchanged at 1.52%.

 

The views expressed herein are those of Kent Engelke and do not necessarily reflect those of Capitol Securities Management. The information contained herein has been compiled from sources believed to be reliable; however, there is no guarantee of its accuracy or completeness. Any opinions expressed are statements of judgment on this date and are subject to certain risks and uncertainties which could cause actual results to differ materially from those currently anticipated or projected. Any future dividends, interest, yields and event dates listed may be subject to change. An investor cannot invest in an index, and its returns are not indicative of the performance of any specific investment. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The material provided in Daily Market Commentaries or on this website should be used for informational purposes only and in no way should be relied upon for financial advice. Please be sure to consult your own financial advisor when making decisions regarding your financial management. Members of FINRA and SIPC, Capitol Securities Management is a privately owned full-service retail brokerage and investment advisory firm headquartered in Richmond, Virginia. For nearly 30 years, we have been serving the needs of our investors. Today, more than 200 Capitol Securities Management investment professionals and support staff serve approximately 18,000 customer accounts from Southern Florida to the New England coast.