15 Aug ARE WE IN THE MOTHER OF DOGS DAY OF SUMMER?
Treasuries rallied, the dollar and equities fell after data showing stalling retail sales and a benign PPI. All added to speculation that the Federal Reserve will be in rush to raise interest rates this year. Gold and oil advanced.
The final two weeks of summer typically are the slowest times on Wall Street. As noted last week, the S & P has now gone 25 consecutive days without moving 1% in either direction, the longest stretch since 2014. Will this streak be extended to 39 days given the historical seasonal lethargy?
Have all become too complacent or does the averages mask the underlying inter day volatility and violence in other markets? I believe the latter using oil as an example. Crude fell about 22% and then rallied about 15% from lows posted about 10 days ago.
What will happen this week? The economic calendar consists of several housing statistics, the CPI and LEI, Capacity Utilization/Industrial Production, as well as the Minutes from the July FOMC meeting. How will these releases influence perception?
Last night the foreign markets were up. London was up 0.25%, Paris up 0.06%, and Frankfurt 0.32%. China was up 2.51%, Japan down 0.03%, and Hang Sang up 0.73%.
The Dow should open little changed. The 10-year is unchanged at 1.52%.