Oil prices and Treasury bond yields both fell again yesterday. The drop in both will end when all least expect as the momentum is great. In my view there is indiscriminate selling in one and indiscriminate buying in the other as the market narrative is...
In many ways the first “real” trading day of 2015 was a continuation of the themes that were present during last day of 2014…oil falling with no end in sight and energy shares following the drop in crude....
Today’s comments are perhaps my least favorite ones to write for they are my outlook for the following year. Many times I have opined it is not what one does but rather why one does it. What do we think may happen and how we...
Oil climbed about $2 on Friday to about $56 barrel on perhaps short covering and perhaps from the closing out of option positions. Has oil found a bottom? ...
Stocks surged again on a dovish Fed as the US Central Bank and US data is making up for bad news in other parts of the world. Oil resumed its sell off and energy was a market laggard. As widely known, the energy issues have...
In my view the equities discern little difference between the term “considerable time” and “patient.” The S & P 500 had its largest advance since October 2013, the result of the post FOMC meeting statement where the Committee stated “it can be patient in beginning...
The two day FOMC meeting concludes today with a 2:00 P.M. statement. Will the phrase “considerable time” be omitted? I will argue no given the impact of the collapse of oil prices is not yet known. Speaking of which, will the Central Bank comment about...
The two day FOMC meeting commences today. Much has changed since its last meeting held in October and their mid-September forecasts. Oil has been crushed, the dollar has rallied and more Americans have jobs than expected. Will the Fed be dovish or hawkish? The sharp...
Friday I noted the drop in oil is not only threatening the existence of companies but also of countries. Perhaps the countries that are facing the gravest threat are Libya, Iran, Iraq, Nigeria, Venezuela, and Russia. Will there be unrest that leads to anarchy that...
As written several times, the $50 drop in crude has transferred about $1.5 trillion from oil consumers to oil producers. It is a defacto stimulus to Europe, Japan and US, a stimulus that is more powerful than any government program given the monies saved goes...