Yesterday I referenced a Bloomberg wire story stating that during the last ten days the cross correlated trades that has been prevalent during the last 16 months is collapsing. Yesterday the trend appeared to be continuing. Is there a tectonic shift taking place in the...
Stocks advanced handsomely again yesterday as oil prices rose as Iran backed a production freeze without pledging supply curbs. The economic data also was encouraging. Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization was stronger than expected as well as the core and overall PPI....
Was Friday a “dead cat bounce?” I do not know but all had small sense of relief from the relentless selling pressure that has decimated the markets. The catalyst for the rebound was oil’s rebound from 12 year lows—the greatest advance in seven years--and financial...
When will it end? In some regards the markets have lost faith in the central banks. As widely accepted the global central banks have been doing all the heavy lifting during the last 7-8 years while governments have been paralyzed because of intense polarization....
FRB Chair Yellen suggested yesterday the central bank might delay, but not abandon, planned interest rate increases in response to recent turmoil in financial markets. Yellen also stated the obvious that the turbulence had “significantly” tightened financial conditions by pushing down stock prices, pushing up...
A widely followed fear index is now 15 out of a 100. If the CNBC account is correct this index is higher today than it was in January 2009....
I am interpreting January’s labor report positively. Yes, non-farm and private sector job creation did disappoint and there was also a downward revision in the prior month’s data but I think the strong growth in average hourly pay, hours worked and increase in the labor...
Earlier in the week I used the word “Pollyannaish” to describe my 2016 economic outlook, an outlook predicated upon the initial release of fourth quarter GDP. This outlook is perhaps in stark contrast to the outlook that is becoming the primary market narrative which is...
Equities staged a rebound to close virtually unchanged from over a 1.0% deficit following a statement from a Federal Reserve official that policy moves are not predetermined amid the recent market turmoil. The dollar weakened and oil fell....
Welcome to February! Will the next 30 days be the inverse of the previous 30 as we just experience the worst January since 2009, the height of the financial crisis? As commented last week, I think the economy/markets are at a transition point. Will growth...