In my view there is a potential disconnect between recent economic data suggesting weakness and the weekly jobless data suggesting strength. Weekly jobless claims are around 15 year lows but recent statistics is projecting second quarter GDP around 1.0%....
Treasuries rallied a second day as it appears the global bond rout is easing. The dollar extended a fifth weekly slide and oil was up for the ninth consecutive week, the longest weekly advance since 1983. Gold rose Friday, rising to a 12 week high...
I like many thought last year’s plunge in energy prices would translated into stronger retail sales. It did not happen. Bloomberg writes sales from 66 of the 84 companies in the S & P 500 that rely on discretionary consumer spending are only up 0.5%....
A constant theme is to expect the unexpected. April’s retail sales disappointed. Consensuses had expected a 0.2% increase but sales were flat. Sales are now flat or down four out of five months with March being the lone exception....
Since August 2014 I have been opining about the illiquidity of the bond market, a liquidity event I believe is the result of regulatory changes. Many times I have commented it could be ugly when selling commences under the simple guise if everyone already owns something...
Markets viewed April’s jobs data positively erasing the week’s decline. The report helped mollify bond investors as yields on Treasuries have surged during the last two weeks on oil’s unrelenting advance to over $60/barrel....
What do I first comment about? Do I remark about oil’s unrelenting advance spiking to over $62 barrel on a reduction in inventories? Or do I write about the bond market rout as the 30-year pierced the 3.0% level because of potential inflationary pressures from...
Oil is over $60 barrel, the highest level since December and up about 40% since it mid-March six year low. The reasons for yesterday’s gain…Libyan port closure and an increase in price that Saudi Arabia charges some North American and European customers....
Are the markets overvalued? In my view, the answer is data dependent. Relatively speaking shares are inexpensive based upon current interest rates. On the other hand, if rates begin to normalize, values are extended....
Last week contained several surprises. European bonds were crushed as the realization of negative yields was acknowledged. This acknowledgement was the catalyst for a sharp selloff in US Treasuries. Oil advanced to its highest level of the year while the dollar fell from its lofty...