Markets have been sanguine regarding a potential debt ceiling crisis. In my view, it seems more likely than not a deal will be done by November 3rd. But what are the possible implications if the debt ceiling debate once again goes down to the wire?...
Stocks jumped on Friday as central banks are reasserting themselves over financial markets, with fresh stimulus form China. The PBOC cut interest rates Friday, a day after the ECB signaled it will bolster stimulus if needed. Equity futures were showing early morning strength because of...
Equites opened strong on earnings only to close lower. The NASDAQ fell about 0.85% as momentum monies exited drug stocks. The Dow was only lower by 0.25%....
Many times I have opined housing and autos traditionally lead a recovery. Auto sales are strong. Housing starts/sales are as well as it was reported yesterday housing starts—led by multifamily—rose to the second highest level since November 2007 (June 2015 starts were insignificantly higher)....
Tomorrow is a “technical meeting” of OPEC members. There is little talk of curtailing production albeit all of its members are hemorrhaging money. Because of the 45% drop in price, the largest and perhaps OPEC’s most financially secure country, Saudi Arabia, is delaying payments to...
The last several months I have had little difficulty writing these remarks given the large amount of material to pick from. Today’s comments, well, I am happy to write were difficult to pen. Friday was a quiet day....
Stocks rallied yesterday amid bank earnings and growing speculation the Federal Reserve will delay raising interest rates until 2016. Treasuries fell and gold erased its loss for the year. The dollar fell on benign CPI data....
The softness in September’s retail sales offers further support that the Fed probably is not going to increase interest rates until March 2016. The 0.1% modest increase was partly due to a price related 3.2% drop in gas sales. Car sales were robust, rising by...
Typically bond investors and economists have little difference of opinion. Today the gap is huge. According to economists surveyed by the WSJ, the Fed Funds rate should climb to 2% in a two year period. Ten year treasury investors with a yield at 2.04% do...
As expected trading was quiet as the bond market and banks were closed for Columbus Day. The dollar fell to a three week low as all are reassessing the probability of a change in monetary policy this year even as several Committee members are suggesting...