Will monetary policy assumptions soon change? Yesterday’s data continued to surprise on the upside. Retail sales, initial jobless claims, the Philadelphia Fed all painted a picture of strength. ...
Yesterday I commented about the massive outperformance of technology which started in earnest in 2016. According to Bloomberg the ten years of tech outperformance is the longest stretch in history with concentrations exceeding the manic 2000 apex. ...
Fourth quarter earnings season is about to commence. According to Goldman, results are expected to increase by the smallest amount in three years, commenting further margin pressure may continue for the foreseeable future for a myriad of reasons. ...
December’s jobs data was nominally disappointing. In my view the biggest disappointment was wage growth which fell below 3% for the first time since July 2018. Based upon the Phillips Curve, wages should be rising with low unemployment. ...
Indexing the last five years has been a runaway success but has this success created market imbalances? Many are starting to opine valuations of the mega sized technology issues have created an environment conducive to increased volatility. ...
Did Iran back down? Did brinkmanship win again? Only history will answer this question. Perhaps the only certainty to write is the media/blogosphere is filled with official sounding but completely unsubstantiated reports. ...
Equities fell nominally as some are wary of escalation in tensions with Iran. Oil also declined believing that such any escalation will not impact supplies. Treasuries were essentially unchanged. ...
Perhaps today’s biggest question is whether or not Iran is a rational actor. To date the regime’s actions do not match their words. While I will not opine about the killing of Soleimani, the rhetoric from some in the US as well as...
In my view the opinions on Wall Street are either extremely bullish or bearish. The bullish camp contends technology shares will continue their exponential rise. Bloomberg writes Apple and Microsoft contributed about 35% to the Dow’s 2019 gains. As written several weeks...
Welcome to 2020 and to a new decade. Many want to know the future but as all know change is the only constant. Based upon the massive ownership of several companies partially the result of passive investing and technology based trading, the vast...