Equities fell again yesterday as December’s retail sales disappointed, casting doubt on the thesis plunging gas prices will boost spending. Some have argued the disappointment is the result of rising health care premiums, low labor participation rates, and increasing rent amplified by lack of wage...
A few nights ago I was reading a report stating the current decline in oil was inevitable given the advancements in technology and the increase in American production. Unfortunately this report was dated December 2014 and was entirely backward looking. Other than a few that...
Can the negative energy narrative become even more intense and myopic, a myopicy fueled by a 16% drop in crude in just six trading days? Yesterday Goldman commented oil can fall to $40/barrel or another approximate 18% -20% from Friday’s close. Will this forecast become...
Stocks sold off. The “accepted” reason is concern that central bank stimulus might not be able to boost inflation as crude continued to fall and American wages fell. What is missing in this narrative is the strong advance leading into Friday. What I will also...
Oil continues to drop. Some have commented the five month decimation in the oil sector is now “an opportunity of a lifetime” as everything has been thrown out with the proverbial bathwater....
The Minutes from the December FOMC meeting were a nonevent. The Minutes stated the risks from overseas, which include the plunge in oil prices, are largely offset by domestic strength. Inflationary concerns remain low and the timing of any change in interest rates remains around...
Oil prices and Treasury bond yields both fell again yesterday. The drop in both will end when all least expect as the momentum is great. In my view there is indiscriminate selling in one and indiscriminate buying in the other as the market narrative is...
In many ways the first “real” trading day of 2015 was a continuation of the themes that were present during last day of 2014…oil falling with no end in sight and energy shares following the drop in crude....
Today’s comments are perhaps my least favorite ones to write for they are my outlook for the following year. Many times I have opined it is not what one does but rather why one does it. What do we think may happen and how we...
Oil climbed about $2 on Friday to about $56 barrel on perhaps short covering and perhaps from the closing out of option positions. Has oil found a bottom? ...