Most would argue the current advance is predicated upon a dramatic change in monetary policy. The bond market has fully discounted a 34% drop in the overnight rate in four months, one of the sharpest declines in monetary history, a decline that is ...
FRB Chair Powell testifies to Congress today about the state of the economy. The market has fully discounted a 0.25% reduction at the conclusion of the July FOMC meeting. I rhetorically ask will ...
The main focus for the markets this week looks to be Fed Chair Powell’s remarks before Congress. His remarks can greatly influence the markets. As widely noted and discounted, the markets are expecting at least a 0.25% reduction in the ...
Friday the all-inclusive June unemployment data is released. The data could be of considerable significance regarding the outlook for monetary policy. As written many times the markets have discounted a 0.75% in the overnight rate by year end with ...
Nervousness amongst many iconic market luminaries is rising with one calling the current environment the “Wild West.” In my view a major reason for this nervousness is the massive influence of the absolute dollar amount of assets in ...
Stocks advanced globally after the US and China reached a fresh truce in the trade war and agreed to resume talks towards a deal.. Gold and Treasuries retreated and oil is ...
The G-20 meeting commences today. Will the outcome be a surprise? I guess it depends how surprise is defined. Countless people have offered expert opinions on what may unfold. We will ...
The bullish in the debt market is at a near unanimity. Most measures are at or near record proportions. One measure of risk relative to the compensation investors receive to hold longer dated obligations is at a ...
As noted many times the markets are suggesting the overnight rate will be lowered 0.75% by year end, a very aggressive 33% reduction. Some were expecting a 0.50% drop at the July meeting only to have their hopes dashed yesterday when one of the...
Yesterday a veteran market professional commented “experience and common sense seem to be useless commodities in the world today.” I cannot agree more with this statement especially regarding the amount of negative interest rate debt outstanding…$12.5 trillion. The amount of negative real interest rate debt...