Treasuries fell while the dollar advanced in a reversal of Tuesday’s trading as the markets weighed the prospect of rising inflation against the political uncertainty of a Trump presidency. Equites fluctuated amid corporate results....
Will there be a tectonic change in government? President Trump is considering a 20% cut in the number of federal workers and an outright reduction in federal spending. Historically a government spending cut is a reduction in the amount of a planned increase, not an...
A theme that may become more pronounced is Main Street outperforming Wall Street, a nascent trend that commenced about two months ago. President Trump’s economic comments are more akin to “old line Democratic thinking” of favoring small business and the “little man” instead of the...
Where are the markets going? Was there the proverbial “buy on rumor and sell on fact” as now most will become focused upon transforming Trump’s words into action and policies? Will the averages be spooked if there is a delay in confirmations?...
Optimism among small business soared in December by the most since 1980 as the economy’s prospects improved dramatically in the aftermath of the presidential election. The indicator itself is now at the highest level since the end of December 2004. Moreover a subcomponent indicating small...
About a year ago oil, value and small cap stocks were plunging. The prevailing narrative was that these issues had absolutely no upside, no access to capital and will be forever forgotten because of HFTs and ETFs....
Treasuries traded lower on December’s employment data, the result of the 2.9% increase in average hourly earnings over the last 12 months. This is the greatest jump since the recession ended in June 2009. It is believed job and wage prospects will increase even more...
Treasury yields fell to a five week low yesterday. Two weeks ago the street was “puking bonds,” reasonable bids virtually impossible to find and spreads between the bid and ask were gapping higher. In my view the economic environment is continuing to improve thus casting...
There was little initial reaction to the Minutes of the December FOMC meeting. Perhaps of significance was the Committee’s fear that the central bank might be forced to quicken the pace of interest rate increases to head off higher inflation....
Some can make the argument the markets believe Trump will deliver on his economic agenda given the sharp increase in Treasury yields and the advance in the beaten down and unowned value and small cap stocks, entities that do best in a growing economy....