At one time yesterday the rout yesterday in the two year Treasury—or the instrument most sensitive to monetary policy—was the biggest in ten years according to Bloomberg. The 10-year saw the biggest increase since November 2016. The catalyst for the selloff was three...
Tomorrow is the release of the BLS labor report. The report can offer considerable insight into the strength of the economy. The market and the narrative is suggesting the economy has gone over the proverbial cliff ...
Trade and the ISM manufacturing Index weighed heavily on equities. There is little I can add about trade…it is fluid, a fluidity based upon a five word tweet. ...
According to Bloomberg 30% of all investment grade securities now bear subzero yields. In other words lenders are paying borrowers to own $17 trillion of debt. In my view this is the ultimate bubble perhaps greater than the infamous tulip bulb frenzy of...
Equities rallied after China indicated it would not immediately retaliate against the latest tariff increase. Even though second quarter GDP data is now stale, the recessionary narrative is prevalent in its interpretation. Headlines read ...
Equities led by the energy shares traded higher as all are awaiting new developments in the increasingly unpredictable Sino-American trade war. The 10-year Treasury closed around a three year low yield of 1.45% and ...
A once unthinkable collapse in global bond yields is forcing pension funds to buy bonds that offer negative returns. Many institutions are warning of a severe mismatch between expected benefits and returns. ...
Many times I have commented about the imbalances of today’s markets, a viewed now shared by many including several regulatory agencies including the SEC. This view has not yet made into the mainstream but I ask is this about to change. ...
The much awaited speech from FRB Chair has come and gone. In my view he said nothing new. Powell commented that the economy is in a favorable place but faced “significant risks” as growth abroad ...
Twenty five years ago one of the top tier data points was the Leading Index of Economic Indicators (LEI). It was a hard and fast rule that three consecutive declines in the LEI all but assured a recession will occur in the next ...