The last several months I have had little difficulty writing these remarks given the large amount of material to pick from. Today’s comments, well, I am happy to write were difficult to pen. Friday was a quiet day....
Stocks rallied yesterday amid bank earnings and growing speculation the Federal Reserve will delay raising interest rates until 2016. Treasuries fell and gold erased its loss for the year. The dollar fell on benign CPI data....
The softness in September’s retail sales offers further support that the Fed probably is not going to increase interest rates until March 2016. The 0.1% modest increase was partly due to a price related 3.2% drop in gas sales. Car sales were robust, rising by...
Typically bond investors and economists have little difference of opinion. Today the gap is huge. According to economists surveyed by the WSJ, the Fed Funds rate should climb to 2% in a two year period. Ten year treasury investors with a yield at 2.04% do...
As expected trading was quiet as the bond market and banks were closed for Columbus Day. The dollar fell to a three week low as all are reassessing the probability of a change in monetary policy this year even as several Committee members are suggesting...
As noted several times, the Federal Reserve has added another variable into its monetary policy making process…international growth, specifically China. Until September all were fixated on the unemployment statistics as this was the FOMC’s stated variable....
Equites ended higher in moderately volatile trading, perhaps the result of HFT. Averages are now at the upper end of their recent trading range. Will shares reverse course or will the advance continue?...
Oils surged to the highest level in a month amid speculation that falling crude production will ease the global supply glut. The International Energy Agency (IEA) stated cuts into new oil projects this year are the biggest in the history as investments in “upstream projects”...
Stocks led by energy rallied yesterday on the belief that monetary policy will remain unchanged until March 2016, perhaps under the simplistic guise of “bad is good.” September’s ISM non-manufacturing data disappointed albeit the data is consistent with GDP growth of 3.5%. Even allowing for...
I am firm believer in the comment to never over react to one single data release. I will make an exception. The chances of a rate hike by the Fed this year just fell exponentially given September’s labor report....