28 Apr FIRST QUARTER GDP AT 8:30

Posted at 13:32h in Market Commentary by
39 Likes

Initial estimates of first quarter GDP is released at 8:30.  Consensus is expecting a 1.0% annual growth rate, personal consumption to increase by 3.5% and the GDP price index to rise by 7.2%. The core PCE or the Federal Reserve’s preferred measure of inflation is forecasted to increase by 5.5%, the greatest gain in forty years.

Will the data support my view of a boomflation environment defined as strong growth and high inflation, partially the result of an increase in monetary velocity amplified by the return of supply channels back to the US where availability versus price is the primary determinate of a purchasing decision?

Commenting on yesterday’s market activity, equities rebounded after dip buyers remerged as a glut earnings reports whipsawed sentiment. The NASDAQ is about to post its worst monthly performance since October 2008.  A combination of Chinese COVID policies, Europe’s energy crisis, mixed earnings, an aggressive Fed all amplified by massive ownership of highly valued shares is to blame for the decline.

After the close several high-profile firms including, Qualcom, PayPal and Meta posted results that were greeted positively by the markets. After the close, AMZN posts earnings. How will they be viewed?

Last night the foreign markets were up. London was up 0.99%, Paris up 1.48% and Frankfurt up 1.37%. China was up 0.58%, Japan up 1.75% and Hang Seng up 1.65%.

Dow futures are up about 1% and NASDAQ futures up about 2%, primarily the result of META’s earnings. Will the 8:30 data impact futures? The 10-year is up 5/32 to yield 2.82%.

 

The views expressed herein are those of Kent Engelke and do not necessarily reflect those of Capitol Securities Management. Any opinions expressed are statements of judgment on this date and are subject to certain risks and uncertainties which could cause actual results to differ materially from those currently anticipated or projected. Any future dividends, interest, yields and event dates listed may be subject to change. An investor cannot invest in an index, and its returns are not indicative of the performance of any specific investment. Past performance is not indicative of future results. This material is being provided for informational purposes only. Any information should not be deemed a recommendation to buy, hold or sell any security. Certain information has been obtained from third-party sources we consider reliable, but we do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete. This report is not a complete description of the securities, markets, or developments referred to in this material and does not include all available data necessary for making an investment decision. Prior to making an investment decision, please consult with your financial advisor about your individual situation. Investing involves risk and you may incur a profit or loss regardless of strategy selected. There is no guarantee that the statements, opinions or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct. If you would like to unsubscribe from this e-mail distribution, please reply to this e-mail and indicate that you wish to unsubscribe in your response.
Tags:
, , , ,