FIRST QUARTER GDP AT 8:30

Initial estimates of first quarter GDP is released at 8:30.  Consensus is expecting a 1.0% annual growth rate, personal consumption to increase by 3.5% and the GDP price index to rise by 7.2%. The core PCE or the Federal Reserve’s preferred measure of inflation is forecasted to increase by 5.5%, the greatest gain in forty years.

Will the data support my view of a boomflation environment defined as strong growth and high inflation, partially the result of an increase in monetary velocity amplified by the return of supply channels back to the US where availability versus price is the primary determinate of a purchasing decision?

Commenting on yesterday’s market activity, equities rebounded after dip buyers remerged as a glut earnings reports whipsawed sentiment. The NASDAQ is about to post its worst monthly performance since October 2008.  A combination of Chinese COVID policies, Europe’s energy crisis, mixed earnings, an aggressive Fed all amplified by massive ownership of highly valued shares is to blame for the decline.

After the close several high-profile firms including, Qualcom, PayPal and Meta posted results that were greeted positively by the markets. After the close, AMZN posts earnings. How will they be viewed?

Last night the foreign markets were up. London was up 0.99%, Paris up 1.48% and Frankfurt up 1.37%. China was up 0.58%, Japan up 1.75% and Hang Seng up 1.65%.

Dow futures are up about 1% and NASDAQ futures up about 2%, primarily the result of META’s earnings. Will the 8:30 data impact futures? The 10-year is up 5/32 to yield 2.82%.

 

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