A consistent theme is that slower growth abroad is a headwind for growth in the US, a slowness that is perhaps amplified by an impending trade war.

Growth has slowed in the EU and China but increased unexpectedly in the US during the first quarter to a 3.2% rate.  Today is the first revision of economy’s first quarter performance and analysts are expecting a nominal downward adjustment to a 3.0% pace.

To remind all the economy grew at average rate of 2.1% from mid-2009 through early 2017. Growth over the last 15 months is over 3% with productivity rising by 2.4% versus a 1.1% annualized rate experienced form mid 2009 through early 2017.

How will today’s data be interpreted?  In many regards the economic outlook today is similar to the outlook prevalent last February…expanding weakness because of the government shutdown.  In February growth accelerated.

Will today’s GDP data and next unemployment statistics agian alter perceptions?  At this juncture I believe growth will continue to surprise on the upside.

Equities were volatile again yesterday, the result of growth and trade fears.  Everyone has now become a yield curve expert however a key point these newly minted experts are missing is the yield curve must be inverted for over 90 days to have any measure of significance.

What will happen today?

Last night the foreign markets were mixed. London was up 0.35%, Paris up 0.20% and Frankfurt up 0.24%.  China was down 0.31%,  Japan down 0.29%  and Hang Sang down 0.44%.

The Dow should open nervously higher as trade and growth assumptions are still front and center.  The 10-year is unchanged at 2.27%.

The views expressed herein are those of Kent Engelke and do not necessarily reflect those of Capitol Securities Management. The information contained herein has been compiled from sources believed to be reliable; however, there is no guarantee of its accuracy or completeness. Any opinions expressed are statements of judgment on this date and are subject to certain risks and uncertainties which could cause actual results to differ materially from those currently anticipated or projected. Any future dividends, interest, yields and event dates listed may be subject to change. An investor cannot invest in an index, and its returns are not indicative of the performance of any specific investment. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The material provided in Daily Market Commentaries or on this website should be used for informational purposes only and in no way should be relied upon for financial advice. Please be sure to consult your own financial advisor when making decisions regarding your financial management. Members of FINRA and SIPC, Capitol Securities Management is a privately owned full-service retail brokerage and investment advisory firm headquartered in Richmond, Virginia. For nearly 30 years, we have been serving the needs of our investors. Today, more than 200 Capitol Securities Management investment professionals and support staff serve approximately 18,000 customer accounts from Southern Florida to the New England coast.