25 Jun IS COMMON SENSE THE MOST NEGLECTED SENSE?
Yesterday a veteran market professional commented “experience and common sense seem to be useless commodities in the world today.”
I cannot agree more with this statement especially regarding the amount of negative interest rate debt outstanding…$12.5 trillion. The amount of negative real interest rate debt outstanding is over $20 trillion according to Bloomberg.
Wow! Most have not even contemplated that in many instances the creditor is now paying the borrower to borrow the creditor’s funds. It is the ultimate losing trade where losses are virtually guaranteed for the creditor. And what about the term “return after inflation?”
I will continue to argue today’s environment is primarily the result of excessive central bank intervention, failed fiscal policies of the industrial democracies, a massive unelected and unaccountable bureaucratic state whose interest is only growing its influence over the populace, and a broken passive trading infrastructure that emphasizes speed and cost of execution over liquidity and capitalization.
In my view the amount of risk that is prevalent is exponential, a risk few dare to discuss. Economic textbooks do not discuss the impact of negative interest rates only to state negative real interest rates lead to inflationary growth, a truism on the same level that an inverted yield curve is recessionary.
Speaking of which, the media/blogosphere are now yield curve experts pounding the table that every recession is preceded by an inverted yield curve and a recession today is now all but inevitable.
Yes there is the truism every recession is preceded by an inverted yield curve, but these new found experts omit such salient points such as to where the yield curve is inverted for not all inversions are created equal, the duration of inversion, and the number of times the yield curve has been inverted since WWII (over 100 times depending upon the points chosen but only ten recessions have occurred).
Many times I have opined the markets are devoid of macroeconomic, geopolitical and individual security analysis, focusing only upon style and cost not substance.
Today will too change but unfortunately the longer current conditions exist, especially regarding negative interest rates, the greater the potential risk and damage.
Speaking of a potential catalyst, will anything be resolved at the upcoming G-20 meeting? If trade is really the major economic concern and if there is a potential resolution, would it then be logical to believe Treasury yields will rise?
I don’t know for as noted above experience and common sense seem to be useless commodities in the world today.
Last night the foreign markets were down. London was down 0.09%, Paris down 0.09% and Frankfurt down 0.04%. China was down 0.87%, Japan down 0.43% and Hang Sang down 1.15%.
The Dow should open nominally lower on geopolitical tensions building into this week’s G-20 meeting. FRB Chair Powell speaks today in New York. Will his comments impact trading or will such be only a rehash of remarks made last week? I think the latter. The 10-year is unchanged at 2.01%.