07 Jun JOBS DATA AT 8:30
May’s unemployment data is released at 8:30. How will the statistics be interpreted? The markets have discounted two interest rate reductions by year end. Both Goldman and Morgan Stanley states that such will not occur opining at most only one could occur, using verbiage similar to that of the Federal Reserve in their outlook. The language is something along the lines monetary policy will be dependent as to how the data unfolds in the intermediate future.
Analysts are expecting a 178k and 172k increase for non-farm and private sector payrolls, respectively, a 3.6% unemployment rate, 0.3% increase hourly earnings, a 34.5 hour work week and a 62.8% labor participation rate.
To write the obvious the markets and economic outlook can be greatly influenced by the data.
Commenting about yesterday’s market action, equities rose on reports the US is considering delaying plans to impose tariffs on Mexico. Oil leapt over 4% at the close to end higher at $53.24. There were also late day reports that recent oil inventory surveys will be “radically revised lower” as the EIA cannot account for much of the recent increase.
Last night the foreign markets were up. London was up 0.85%, Paris up 1.47% and Frankfurt up 0.74%. China was down 1.17%, Japan up 0.53% and Hang Sang up 0.26%.
The Dow should open moderately higher on trade and monetary policy optimism but this could change radically given the potential significance of the 8:30 data. The 10-year is unchanged at 2.12%.