01 Apr LABOR REPORT AT 8:30
March’s employment data is released at 8:30. To write the incredibly obvious broad based conclusions may be drawn from the statistics, conclusions that may validate preconceived confirmation biases.
Consensus is expecting a 206,000 and 190,000 increase in non-farm and private sector payrolls, respectively, a 4.9% unemployment rate, a 0.2% increase in average hourly earnings, a 34.5 hour work week and a 62.9% labor participation rate (LPR).
Some are suggesting a 200,000 NFP print, a level that is today regarded as a “strong” will be hard to make given the declining unemployment rate but I will argue the opposite. There is a vast pool of workers as measured by the LPR—aka inventories in oil jargon—that first must be exhausted. If the LPR was around 68% or where it stood in 2008 I would agree with the above view.
Regarding wages, wages have been accelerating at the either end of the spectrum—the lowest because of political pressure and the highest because of the dearth of qualified workers. I can argue the lack of wage pressures is from benign inflation statistics causing nonexistent COLAs all are closely correlated.
I think, however, even if the report is a proverbial blockbuster, I do not think it will change views regarding a change in interest rates at the April meeting, a conclusion based upon FRB Yellen’s early week comments. The Committee is now publically stating it would be willing to permit inflation to be higher than its targeted rate to ensure the end of any lingering deflationary fears.
Commenting about yesterday’s market activity, trading was quiet ahead of the report as the S & P posted its best month in five. The dollar fell yet again, heading for its worst monthly drop since 2010. Gold is headed for its biggest three month gain since 1986 as per Bloomberg.
As noted yesterday, few would have suggested March’s trading activity.
Last night the foreign markets were down. London was down 1.32%, Paris down 2.16% and Frankfurt down 2.15%. China was down 0.56%, Japan down 3.55%and Hang Sang down 1.34%
The Dow should open moderately lower as oil is down on headlines that Saudi Arabia may only freeze output only if Iran freezes output. Europe was deeply in the red. China’s manufacturing sector unexpectedly rose. The direction however could change radically given the significance of the upcoming employment data. The 10-year is