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Daily reports from our Chief Economic Strategist.
SOME DAUNTING STATISTICS…DID A CONSERVATIVE MANDATE JUST OCCUR IN ENGLAND?
Many times I have commented about the narrowest of today’s market, stating a misstep from one of the titans can have an outsized impact, an impact that is double the impact that these titans have had on the advance of the last three years.
WAS THE FED MEETING REALLY A NON EVENT?
As largely expected the Fed left interest rates unchanged and signaled it would keep them on hold through 2020 amid a solid economy. The vote was unanimous, the first since May.
TRADE, SMALL BUSINESS SENTIMENT AND THE FOMC
An argument can be made the proverbial buy on rumor and sell on fact phenomena could occur following the agreement of any trade deal. Yesterday the “New NAFTA” was agreed upon and the markets had little reaction. Can we make the assumption that
THE FED MEETING, FUNDING MARKET AND OER
It is often written the markets are a microcosm of the myopicy of current perspectives. The issue at hand is to recognize the next myopic dominating view.
THE LABOR MARKET IS STRONGER THAN ALL HAD ANTICIPATED!
Wow! The jobs data was a complete blow out. November’s payrolls climbed the most since January. October’s statistics were revised higher. The increase in wages is now at a cycle high. Yes the labor participation rate did decrease by 0.1% but this was more of a function of workers reentering the work force, a sign of strength.
IT IS STILL ALL ABOUT TRADE
Stocks edged lower as all weighed the chances that the US will scrap a tariff hike on Chinese goods scheduled for December 15. Treasuries also dropped in price as jobless claims fell to a seven month low.
IT IS STILL ALL ABOUT TRADE
Equities advanced and bonds fell on speculation the US and China will reach a deal that avoids tariffs due to take hold in 11 days. The advance/decline almost reverses the prior day gyration.
A DOWN DAY
Equities came under pressure, the result of trade fears and disappointing factory data. Treasuries also declined in price, the inverse of what was expected to yesterday’s events. Oil on the other hand
A BUSY WEEK FOR STATISTICS
2019 will perhaps be regarded as the year the unexpected occurred. Domestically the economic forecast for 2019 penned around this time last year was largely met but the response to it was largely unexpected given the consensus view
THOUGHTS ABOUT THE 10-YEAR TREASURY
Last year at this juncture the 10-year was yielding around 3.25% and consensus was expecting the 10-year Treasury to broach 4% sometime in 2019 as the Fed continued with its anticipated tightening cycle of an additional 50-75 basis points. In reality the 10-year fell
