Market Commentary

Daily reports from our Chief Economic Strategist.

AFTER A FIVE YEAR HIATUS THE JACKSON HOLE HYPE HAS RETURNED
The markets (and narrative) are absolutely convinced that the current de globalization will produce a recession. The markets (and narrative) are also convinced that the US will follow the global economies, the inverse of
A BRIEF HISTORY LESSON
Fake news is not a new phenomenon. It has been around since the dawn of mankind using any delivery method to influence the populace. It is often written those who control the media can greatly influence society’s perceptions and
THE TALE OF TWO ECONOMIES
Barron’s wrote yesterday US technology firms are and will continue to bear the grunt of the trade war. In my view this is just the acknowledgment of the obvious given the current supply chains and methods of production for
A RECORD LOW YIELD FOR THE 30 YEAR US TREASURY…WAL-MART’S CONTRADICTORY SIGNAL
The 30-year Treasury is now trading at a record low yield of 2.02%. Bloomberg writes the current unending advance is predicated by “considerable and unrelenting” central bank buying. There is now over $15 trillion of
IT IS ALL ABOUT THE TWEET
Earlier in the week I commented President Trump controls the trade news cycle, writing all he has to do is tweet and immediately change the narrative. Yesterday markets were going to open on their back foot until the President sent a tweet about
A THOUGHT ABOUT MARKET LIQUIDITY
In my view the race to bottom regarding asset management fees is adding to market illiquidity. Bloomberg writes there is approximately $8 trillion between ETFs and passive index funds. There is little barrier to entry and hundreds of companies are
WILL RESOLUTION TO TRADE NOT OCCUR UNTIL 2020?
There is a growing number of analysts who are suggesting the trade war will not end until 2020 because there is no incentive for either the US or Chinese to come an agreement until then. For China they will not likely agree to the
JOBS DATA AT 8:30
July’s BLS employment report will be released at 8:30. Recent data has been suggesting a firming economy. Job growth is a primary driver of economic growth and data to date suggests one of the greatest issues for employers is
THE FED DID AS EXPECTED
As widely expected the FOMC lowered interest rates by 0.25% to insulate the US from slowing global growth. The Committee also stopped shrinking the Fed’s balance sheet effective August 1 as compared to the previously announced
FED ANNOUNCEMENT AT 2:00
Consensus is expecting the FOMC to lower the overnight rate by 0.25%. Is such necessary? Recent data is suggesting one of growing strength not weakness. As noted Guggenheim stated yesterday that it thinks the Fed should raise rates to
1 2 3 60

balanced-tagline