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Daily reports from our Chief Economic Strategist.
THINGS LAST UNTIL THEY DON’T
Last week I wrote it is human nature to extrapolate the current into infinity. What we think we can foresee is often nothing more than what we have recently seen. “More of the same” is the sensible default prediction in politics, baseball and markets. The past continues until
WHAT SENTIMENT WILL THE FED EXPRESS THIS WEEK?
Will this week be of great significance? As widely known the Fed is holding its June meeting. The prevailing market narrative is the economy is edging towards a considerable slowdown and the market is suggesting
WAS YESTERDAY A DAY OF SIGNIFICANCE?
Was yesterday a day of significance? Oil advanced over 2% as several oil tankers were attacked in the Gulf of Oman. As widely noted, oil has plunged since sanctions were levied on Iran as inventories have surged. Many, including me, expected inventories to fall given these sanctions, the Venezuelan implosion, erratic shipments from both
HAS THE TIDE TURNED FOR MEGA SIZE TECH?
Equities fell for a myriad of reasons. Technology stocks just posted their best six day stretch in 7 ½ years—up nearly 9%--fell about 1.5%. The reasons for the decline varied but a major catalyst were reports that Facebook was aware of privacy issues, did little about it and did not put compliance with
WHAT STREET IS CORRECT?
In my view there is a disconnect between Main Street and Wall Street. Utilizing May’s NFIB small business optimism index [aka Main Street], economic activity is robust. May’s readings was the highest since October, hiring plans rose to the greatest level since
ALWAYS EXPECT THE UNEXPECTED
Always expect the unexpected. Late last week the 10 year Treasury traded to a 2.07% yield down from a 3.23% yield registered in late November. According to the WSJ, the lowest 2019 projected yield from a late 2018 survey of the largest Wall Street firms was a
JOBS DATA AT 8:30
May’s unemployment data is released at 8:30. How will the statistics be interpreted? The markets have discounted two interest rate reductions by year end. Both Goldman and Morgan Stanley states that such will not occur opining at most only
SEVERAL MORE WARNINGS ABOUT THE LACK OF LIQUIDITY
According to a survey taken by JP Morgan the greatest risk to quantitative strategies is not a sharp increase in rates or poor economic data but rather a collapse in liquidity. According to the Bank, “people know this is happening, it is not just a theory but
EQUITIES REBOUNDED SHARPLY ON COMMENTS FROM POWELL
As widely known, the Dow is down for six consecutive weeks. Will this week be the seventh? Bespoke Investment Group states that since 1900 there have only been seven 7-week losing streaks and just one
LIQUIDITY IS VIRTUALLY ABSENT
Long dated Treasury yields are falling at a faster pace than in the beginning of the 2008 financial crisis. Bloomberg writes the 10 year Treasury is near the most overbought territory since 1998. The last two time Treasuries were so overbought was
