Market Commentary

Daily reports from our Chief Economic Strategist.

Capitol Securities COVID-19 Response
Our number one priority is the safety and health of our clients and our associates. Capitol Securities has taken steps to ensure that we can continue supporting our clients and protect our communities to the best of our ability. Contingency Planning We have enacted some...
A BEFUDDLING MARKET
Is the reflation trade over, the result of surprised hawkishness of the Federal Reserve? Many including me are befuddled about market activity. There is a litany of high-profile investors ranging from
WAS THE FED HAWKISH? ARE THE MARKETS THIS FRAGILE?
Was the outcome of the FOMC meeting a surprise? The Federal Reserve signaled that it intends to have two increases in the overnight rate by the end of 2023. Previously it was suggesting one or
FED STATEMENT AT 2:00 PM
Some have commented the outcome of today’s FOMC meeting will create FRB Chair Powell’s legacy. Yesterday’s PPI was stronger than expected, rising 6.6% in May on an
WHO IS CORRECT? THE MARKET OR SENTIMENT INDICATORS?
Will there be any change in monetary policy, the result of tomorrow’s FOMC meeting? As noted many times inflation is a two-part phenomenon…monetary and psychological. Both elements are
NEGATIVE REAL INTEREST RATES AND ESG LENDING
The traditional laws of Economics state surging money supply and negative real interest rates are supportive to inflationary growth. To date this law has not been violated but there is now a
CPI AGAIN EXCEEDED ESTIMATES…INCREASE VIEWED AS “TRANSITORY”
Prices paid by consumers rose in May by more than forecast, extending a months-long buildup in inflation that risks becoming more
ANOTHER RECORD FOR JOLT
Yesterday’s data continued to suggest an economy is in the nascent stages of inflationary growth. Further statistics from the NFIB (National Federation of Independent Business) stated 40% of owners indicated they are rising selling prices in
A PROPOSED GLOBAL MINUMUM TAX AND HIGHER INTEREST A “PLUS” FOR THE ECONOMY AS PER THE ADMINISTRATION
Will a 15% global minimum tax be instituted? The Biden Administration initially proposed a 21% levy but dropped it to 15% to ensure G-7 endorsement. According to Bloomberg, the
MAY’S JOBS DATA AGAIN INDICATED SUPPLY CONSTRAINTS
The growth in May’s nonfarm and private sector payrolls was again disappointing, the result of supply constraints. Revisions in April data was insignificant hence supporting the
A QUIET DAY AND BLACKROCK’S INFLATION COMMENTS
Markets were quiet as the tussle between economic optimism and inflation concern continued to play out. Energy led the market as crude is at the highest level since
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