Market Commentary

Daily reports from our Chief Economic Strategist.

Capitol Securities COVID-19 Response
Our number one priority is the safety and health of our clients and our associates. Capitol Securities has taken steps to ensure that we can continue supporting our clients and protect our communities to the best of our ability. Contingency Planning We have enacted some...
WILL THE TREASURY SELLOFF CONTINUE?
Friday there were several headlines stating “There is a buyer strike on Treasuries” or “How high will
A SIGNIFICANT SELL OFF IN THE BOND MARKET
Long dated Treasuries were crushed yesterday. The 30-year benchmark was down over three points surging 14 bps in yield to 1.95% and the 10-year is off over
IN MARKET PARLANCE THE FED MEETING WAS A NON-EVENT
Equites remained higher and Treasuries were mostly steady after the Fed signaled it would probably begin tapering as early as November and end by
FED ANNOUNCMENT AT 2:00
It is widely accepted labor costs and Owner’s Equivalent Rent (OER) are the two largest components of inflation. The Federal Reserve has adamantly stated workers will return to
AN UGLY DAY
The S & P 500 has violated its 50-day and 100-day moving average for the first time in about a year. Every time since October 2020 when the S & P 500 touches these pivotal moving average lines, it has
THE UNIVERSITY OF MICHIGAN SENTIMENT SURVEY AND THE FED…AND WHAT ABOUT THE CHINESE REAL ESTATE SECTOR?
Inflation is a two-part phenomenon; too much money chasing too few goods fearing higher prices tomorrow. There is a monetary and psychological component.
RETAIL SALES SURPRISED ON THE UPSIDE
August retail sales rose unexpectedly as a pickup in purchases across most categories more than offset supply weakness at auto dealers. Ex autos, sales rose by 1.8%, the greatest gain in
OIL, THE CORE CPI AND THE 10-YEAR TREASURY
Energy shares led the S & P 500 higher as sentiment about a slowdown in economic growth eased. Energy, which comprises around a record low of 2% of the S & P 500 versus the
CPI AT 8:30
August’s CPI is released at 8:30. In some regards, posted inflation data is exceeding forecasted amounts by a 2 to 1 margin according to the Citicorp Surprise Index. Analysts are expecting a
WILL SEPTEMBER’S CPI ALSO SURPRISE ON THE UPSIDE?
August’s PPI was above expectations. Final demand PPI increased 0.7% from the prior month and 8.3% from a year ago, a fresh series high. Excluding the
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