Many times I have commented about the narrowest of today’s market, stating a misstep from one of the titans can have an outsized impact, an impact that is double the impact that these titans have had on the advance of the last three years.
An argument can be made the proverbial buy on rumor and sell on fact phenomena could occur following the agreement of any trade deal. Yesterday the “New NAFTA” was agreed upon and the markets had little reaction. Can we make the assumption that
Wow! The jobs data was a complete blow out. November’s payrolls climbed the most since January. October’s statistics were revised higher. The increase in wages is now at a cycle high. Yes the labor participation rate did decrease by 0.1% but this was more of a function of workers reentering the work force, a sign of strength.
Stocks edged lower as all weighed the chances that the US will scrap a tariff hike on Chinese goods scheduled for December 15. Treasuries also dropped in price as jobless claims fell to a seven month low.
2019 will perhaps be regarded as the year the unexpected occurred. Domestically the economic forecast for 2019 penned around this time last year was largely met but the response to it was largely unexpected given the consensus view
Last year at this juncture the 10-year was yielding around 3.25% and consensus was expecting the 10-year Treasury to broach 4% sometime in 2019 as the Fed continued with its anticipated tightening cycle of an additional 50-75 basis points. In reality the 10-year fell