Market Commentary

Daily reports from our Chief Economic Strategist.

Is Dodd Frank Yet Another Example of Regulation That Has Created the Next Crisis?
Is Dodd Frank yet another example of regulation that has created the next crisis?  Dodd Frank changed the landscape in which the fixed income market operates, a market that is about 10 times greater in size and importance than the equity market.
Many Times I Wrote the Markets Historically Decline Between 5% and 20% in the Months Heading into the Midterms.
Many times I wrote the markets historically decline between 5% and 20% in the months heading into the midterms.  It is also widely known September is historically the worst month for equities.
Yesterday Was an Ugly Day.
Yesterday was an ugly day.  Equities declined for a myriad of reasons; including a report from Reuters that Russia may seize foreign assets in retaliation of sanctions, domestic economic data that questions the timing of a change in monetary policy and European economic weakness that raises fears of a more pronounced slow down on the continent.
The Mid-Term Election is Quickly Approaching.
The mid-term election is quickly approaching.  The narrative is rising the Senate will change hands, the result of poor presidential approval ratings and from steep historical precedence the party of a second term president always loses seats during the mid-term..  Will 2014 be viewed in the same manner as 2006 when the Republicans lost six Senate seats and 30 House seats as well as control of Congress?
Equities Declined as the Treasury Department Disclosed Plans to Limit Tax Inversion Mergers.
Equities declined as the Treasury Department disclosed plans to limit tax inversion mergers.  Stocks were also spooked by Syrian airstrikes, raids that caused oil to rally.
The Last Several Days I Have Commented About the Lack of Market Breadth.
The last several days I have commented about the lack of market breadth.  Yesterday Bloomberg reported the last time so few companies in the Russell 3000 pushed this gauge to an intraday high was March 24, 2000, two weeks after an all-time high was reached.
Last Week I Commented About Market Bifurcation Referencing Bloomberg and Its Observation that 47% of NASDAQ Composite Companies are Down Over 20% YTD, a Decline that has Occurred Since July.
Last week I commented about market bifurcation referencing Bloomberg and its observation that 47% of NASDAQ Composite companies are down over 20% YTD, a decline that has occurred since July.
There was Little Reaction to the President’s Speech, a Rise in Crude Prices From an Eight Month Low and Weekly Jobless Claims that were Nominally Higher Than Expected.
There was little reaction to the President’s speech, a rise in crude prices from an eight month low and weekly jobless claims that were nominally higher than expected.  Will there be a reaction to today’s release of August’s retail sales data or University of Michigan Confidence survey?
Tags: President
Will Today’s Data Confirm or Deny the Rising Sentiment that the Overnight Rate Will be 0.50% by September 2015?
Will today’s data confirm or deny the rising sentiment that the overnight rate will be 0.50% by September 2015?  Fed Funds futures which are a gauge of market sentiment now suggest a 79% chance that such will occur.  That compares with a 63% chance at the conclusion of the last FOMC meeting.
The 10-Year Treasury Has Had its Longest Slide in Three Months.
The 10-year treasury has had its longest slide in three months.  The behemoth money management firm Blackrock stated yesterday an improving labor market and signs of inflation argue for the Federal Reserve to boost borrowing costs.