Market Commentary

Daily reports from our Chief Economic Strategist.

THIS COULD BE A SIGNIFICANT WEEK…CPI, EARNINGS AND TREASURY AUCTIONS
This could be a significant weak. First and foremost is tomorrow’s release of March’s CPI. March’s PPI surprised on the upside. Ex food and energy, the PPI rose by
WILL THE CPI BE HIGHER THAN THE ENTIRE TREASURY SPECTRUM?
Bond prices have rallied nominally off last week’s lows as the 10-year has slipped in yield by about 10 basis points. Some are questioning why the advance as the data is
PROJECTED GROWTH RATES ARE CONTINUING TO RISE
It appears as though projected global growth rates are rising every day. The IMF is now suggesting the global economy will expand by 6% this year, up from
THE DATA IS EXTREMELY STRONG
The economic data is surging. The ISM Non-Manufacturing Index surged to the highest level since the 1997 inception on this data point. The reading exceeded even the most optimistic projection by
GLOBAL GROWTH FORCASTS HAVE BEEN UPGRADED TO THE HIGHEST LEVEL IN 60 YEARS
Growth forecasts are continuing to be upgraded and recent outlooks now suggest world growth could hit a 60 year high in 2021 according to Bloomberg. The reasons are well known…shrinking virus threat, massive US stimulus, and
MARCH’S JOBS DATA DUE TOMORROW AT 8:30
Technologies staged a handsome advance yesterday as the President is proposing a $2.25 trillion stimulus that could potentially reward ESG investing. At this juncture stimulus is
THE VELOCITY OF CHANGE
Many times, I have commented about the velocity of change. Newswires are suggesting “one of the greatest hidden fortunes amounting anywhere from $5 to $15 billion” was
WILL THE SUEZ CANAL BECOME A MARKET NARRATIVE?
Will the selloff in the Treasury market continue? Investors have historically required a yield bonus (aka risk premium over a specific benchmark) to
A MIXED DAY
Equites closed at their lows with the NASDAQ shedding about 2.0% and the Dow unchanged. Treasury prices were insignificantly higher in price. Some, including myself, believe a reason for the mixed market was
WILL QUARTER END REBALANCING INCREASE VOLATILITY?
The end of the first quarter is quickly approaching. Many, myself included, have expressed concerns about potential quarter and month end rebalancing. Long dated US Treasuries are

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