Market Commentary

Daily reports from our Chief Economic Strategist.

THE BIEGE BOOK AND JOLTS SURVEY
The Beige Book, or the statistical compilation utilized at the upcoming Fed meeting, noted a “downshift” in the pace of economic activity, albeit “only a slight one.” The culprit was a
TREASURY YIELDS ARE BROACHING A POTENTIALLY KEY LEVEL
Most are perplexed as to why Treasury yields are rising with such a poor employment number. The discussion is perhaps more intense than the one of the last three months as too why yields were
A BIG MISS ON THE JOB’S DATA
Wow! What a miss in the jobs data. Both non-farm payrolls and private sector job creation vastly disappointed.
JOBS DATA AT 8:30
August’s unemployment data is released today at 8:30. Will the release be of great significance? As widely noted, the Federal Reserve expects labor supply to
THE ISM, ADP EMPLOYMENT SURVEY AND JP MORGAN
Another bulge bracket firm—JP Morgan—is suggesting the 10-year Treasury can trade to 1.90% by year end. The Bank joined Citibank and Bank of America with a
FRB CHAIR’S SPEECH WAS NOT A WATERSHED EVENT
FRB Chair’s much anticipated speech was not a watershed event. Powell essentially reiterated the messaging from the last FOMC statement and Minutes. If things evolve as expected, the Fed could start to
CITI’S AND MERRILL’S OUTLOOK
Both Citicorp and Merrill Lynch are suggesting the 10-year will yield 2.0% by year’s end. Merrill further stated this increase in yields will cause a 16.5% decline in the S & P 500 as valuations are
WILL THE JACKSON HOLE SYMPOSIUM BE OF ANY SIGNIFICANCE?
Will the upcoming Jackson Hole Symposium be of any significance, defined as will there be a major change in monetary policy? In years’ past the Federal Reserve has used this platform to
OPTION EXPIRATION DAY
There is a plethora of explanations for recent equity weakness; tapering, resurgent virus worries, rising wages, inflation, supply bottlenecks, option expiration.
EQUITIES ENDED AROUND SESSION LOWS ON TAPERING TALK
The Fed Minutes signaled that a formal decision on a reduction of its massive bond paying program could happen in 2021. Many, including me, thought the Fed would

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