Market Commentary

Daily reports from our Chief Economic Strategist.

THE METEORIC RISE IN THE CITICORP SURPRISE INDEX
Even with Friday’s nominally disappointing economic data, the meteoric rise in the Citicorp Economic Surprise Index is not challenged. In almost every dimension, data, earnings, etc. have
THERE IS A V SHAPE RECOVERY…WILL IT CONTINUE?
June’s retail sales greatly exceeded expectations, rising 7.5% from May. A year over year measure of retail sales climbed 1.1% in June according to the Commerce Department. This is
FACTORY OUTPUT JUMPED THE MOST SINCE 1946
Industrial Production surged in June, posting the largest monthly gain since 1959. Factory output jumped 7.2%, the biggest gain since 1946.
WHAT WILL HEADLINES READ IN 60 DAYS?
The increase in coronavirus cases is dominating headlines. Can I suggest the fight as to who first receives the vaccine becomes more explosive than the increase in cases and even more
“TO INFINITY AND BEYOND” (Buzz Lightyear)
The technology heavyweights continued their relentless advance, shattering any remaining illusions about the significance of security research. It is obvious the pathway to massive over performance is
ARE WE PLAYING JENGA?
In my view the relentless rally in companies considered to be havens from the virus is now at manic proportions. Ownership is crowded and valuations are so
WELCOME TO THE SECOND HALF OF 2020
Welcome to the second half of 2020. During the first six months, the markets were faced with an impeachment, a pandemic, an economic calamity, civil unrest and perhaps the commencement of
RECOVERY TRUMPS CASES
Equities rose after better than estimated economic data offset concern over an increase in coronavirus cases. US pending home sales posted a record gain, exceeding
A DOWN DAY
Equities were spooked by a resurgence in new virus infections, a rise that has slowed the reopening in several states. The markets were also frightened by the Federal Reserve dictum of
A VOLATILE DAY
Fears of resurgence of the coronavirus are dominating the news and spooking the markets. The flareups bear watching but the original lockdowns were never going to eradicate the disease without

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