Market Commentary

Daily reports from our Chief Economic Strategist.

FIRST QUARTER GROWTH IS NOW PROJECTED TO BE IN THE MID TWO PERCENT RANGE
Five weeks ago the recessionary narrative was at the point of being hyperbolic. A major issue at hand was the data at that time did not fully support this theme. Five weeks later little attention has been focused upon concrete data that is suggesting a first quarter growth rate anywhere between 2.1% and 2.9%. The Atlanta Fed is now projecting a
ANOTHER MIXED DAY
Equities were again mixed as a group of high profile earnings offered disparate clues on the strength of the economy. Treasuries continued to slump with rates falling to levels last seen before the Fed’s dovish tilt a month ago. Oil advanced about
A RELATIVELY QUIET DAY
Markets were relatively quiet as two mega sized financials posted disappointing results. Many are beginning to write the current advance is “looking tired.” Will earnings rejuvenate the averages? Several high profile companies report this week including
A GOOD START TO EARNINGS SEASON
Earnings season commenced on a positive note as two mega sized financials posted positive surprises. Crude continued to advance and there was a major merger in this sector at a price 39% higher than previous day closing thus suggesting
FIRST QUARTER EARNINGS SEASON COMMENCES TODAY
Markets were mixed ahead of the commencement of first quarter earnings season and data that confirms the economy is on solid footing. Commenting about the data, weekly jobless claims are at the lowest level since
IS THE ILLUSION OF LIQUIDITY ABOUT TO BE SHATTERED?
Some believe the “illusion” of liquidity could be shattered in the intermediate future as more on Wall Street are adopting the view that technology based trading will be the bane of the markets, a view that I have expressed many times. Bloomberg writes “algorithmic trading strategies and other quantitative traders have caused
IS STRONGER THAN EXPECTED GROWTH THE GREATEST RISK TO THE MARKETS?
Several times I have opined the greatest risk to the markets is greater growth than anticipated that challenges monetary policy expectations. As widely accepted a major reason for the December rout was growth and the December 21 FOMC statement that Treasury sales were
EARNINGS SEASON COMMENCES FRIDAY
Earnings season commences Friday. Depending upon the source, first quarter profits are expected to decline anywhere between 4.8% and 9%. JP Morgan writes the majority of the declines will be focused in the
JOBS DATA AT 8:30
March’s unemployment data is released at 8:30. In my view the data can confirm or deny the recessionary narrative. As widely discussed February’s statistics were extremely confusing as growth in private sector and non-farm payrolls greatly disappointed while other components of the report indicated
A MIXED DAY
Yesterday I referenced an UBS report about the lack of liquidity in the bond market under the guise of “it is not what you say but rather why you say it” specifically stating the lack of liquidity is perhaps impacting overall profitability. On Wednesday, UBS announced its

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