I am ardent believer in the phrase it is not what one does but rather why one does it. I am also an ardent believer in the philosophy that norms and means are significant and are important to understand where one might be going for the vast majority of events the environment reverts back to or close to the mean.
According to Bloomberg 78% of 303 S & P 500 companies that have reported earnings have exceeded expectations. Regarding revenues, 39% beat forecasts and 40% matched. For the quarter earnings are expected to decline by 2.1% YOY, an improvement over the 3.8% expected drop.
Today is the release of the BLS employment survey. The recessionary narrative rose yesterday as the Chicago PMI [manufacturing in the region] posted the lowest reading since 2015. In my view a major reason for this decline is the GM strike and
The first print of third quarter GDP validated my long held view of today’s recessionary fears are vastly overblown. The economy expanded at a 1.9% annualized rate versus the consensus view of a 1.6% pace. Perhaps the most significant aspect of the report is
Equity markets are pricing about a 90% probability the Fed will lower interest rates on Wednesday. In my view the global headwinds that pushed the Bank to cut rates in July and September have abated somewhat
Many times I have commented about the narrowness of the market. Bloomberg quantified this lack of breadth on Friday. The newswire stated Thursday was the third time this year that the number of decliners was least 400 more than gainers when the NASDAQ was up at least 0.5%. Prior to 2019 it had only happened four times
Value trounced growth yesterday, partially the result of earnings. OK, growth has decimated value since at least 2008 and depending upon the source value is trading at the sharpest discount to growth since at least 2000. Some data points go as far back to 1986 or even 1957.