Market Commentary

Daily reports from our Chief Economic Strategist.

WILL JAMES CARVILLE BE CLAIRVOYANT?
“I used to think that if there was reincarnation, I wanted to come back as the president or the pope or as a .400 baseball hitter. But know I would like to come back as the
IT HAS AND ALWAYS WILL BE PRIMARILY ABOUT INTEREST RATES
Equites were mixed Friday as long dated Treasuries stabilized. Quadruple witching hour was a none event, perhaps the result that many positions were already unwound. The prevailing and driving narrative has
FED MEETING CONCLUDES AT 2:00 P.M.
No change in monetary policy is expected from today’s Fed meeting. The question at hand is how the Fed will address rising inflationary expectations. Market derived expectations have
WILL THIS WEEK BE ONE OF SIGNIFICANCE?
Will this week be one of significance? There is a Fed meeting Wednesday and equity derivative expiry on Friday. While the events might be completely separate, in a sense they
IT IS GETTING UGLY IN THE BOND MARKET
The bond market is fearing the Fed may be falling behind the proverbial inflationary curve and it is getting ugly in the bond market. Bank America writes the selloff in the 30-year Treasury is
HIGHER TREASURY YIELDS DID NOT IMPACT THE NASDAQ
The NASDAQ posted a handsome advance even as longer dated Treasury yields rose. Equities took their que from the signing into law the $1.9 trillion spending bill as the
IS IT ALL ABOUT THE TREASURY MARKET?
The NASDAQ was posting almost a 2% gain following an inflation report that largely met expectations. However, the gains were reversed following a mediocre $38 billion 10-year Treasury auction. Many had thought the
WHERE ARE WE GOING?
February’s jobs data surprised on the upside, reinforcing the view the economy is recovering faster than most had expected. As a result, the selloff in Treasuries is continuing, a selloff that is
FEBRUARY’S EMPLOYMENT REPORT AND FRB CHAIR POWELL
Today the pivotal February employment report is released. In my view perhaps the most significant aspect of this very inclusive release is the average hourly earnings
INFLATIONARY EXPECTATIONS ARE AT THE HIGHEST LEVEL SINCE 2008
Price stability and maximum employment is the dual but conflicting mandate of the Federal Reserve. Few market participants have experienced the ravages of inflation and the decimation that has occurred in the

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