Market Commentary

Daily reports from our Chief Economic Strategist.

WILL THE JACKSON HOLE SYMPOSIUM BE OF ANY SIGNFICANCE?
For many years the Jackson Hole Symposium was the Federal Reserve event of the year. The hype was intense. Several years ago, the event took a noticeable downshift as
CONSUMER SENTIMENT FELL TO THE LOWEST LEVEL IN A DECADE
Sentiment fell to the lowest level in nearly a decade. The data fell short of all estimates by a wide margin with perhaps the decline in future expectations most
CPI AT 8:30
Yesterday I rhetorically asked whether reality will return to the bond market with a vengeance. At the time of this writing the 10-year Treasury is yielding 1.37% up from
WILL REALITY RETURN TO THE BOND MARKET WITH A VENGEANCE?
Will reality return to the bond market with a vengeance? Almost everyone including FRB Chair Powell is surprised by the two month advance in Treasuries. As widely discussed the
JULY’S JOBS DATA EXCEEDED ALL EXPECTATIONS
July’s employment data exceeded all estimates. More importantly the previous month’s data was revised higher thus suggesting considerable underlying strength.
IS THE CHINESE CRACKDOWN ANYTHING OF SIGNIFICANCE?
Is the crackdown in China an event of great significance? Several bulge bracket firms including JP Morgan and Goldman have commented that many Chinese companies may be
EARNINGS ARE SURPRISING ON THE UPSIDE BUT SO ARE INFLATIONARY COMMENTS
Some have stated the strength of 2Q earnings is surprising. I don’t agree with this statement for the simple reason for the gazillionith consecutive quarter profits have
SOCIAL SECURITY’S COLA IS EXPECTED TO BE THE HIGHEST SINCE 1983
Value and cyclical lead equities higher. Small caps outperformed all indices under the simple reflationary premise.
WILL THE 50 DAY MOVING AVERAGE BE VIOLATED?
The indices are on the verge of rolling over. Bloomberg writes for the fifth time this year the S & P 500 has traded to this pivotal support line and in every instance rebounded. Will today be
WE ARE LIVING IN UNIQUE TIMES
Friday Bloomberg quoted a $2.2 billion Treasury portfolio manager at Wells Fargo with 30 years of experience stating “The Fed has killed the interest rate cycle. I think the Fed determines we are on a

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