Market Commentary

Daily reports from our Chief Economic Strategist.

COVID FEARS FRONT AND CENTER; DATA DUMP AT 8:30
Equities declined on Covid nervousness. In some regions, cases are rising dramatically. New York, New Jersey and Connecticut are requiring visitors to self-quarantine if traveling from
ANOTHER STIMULUS AT HAND?
Equities rose amid a report the Trump Administration supports sending another round of checks. Markets were also cheered by data suggesting the manufacturing sector is almost expanding and
A BRIEF EXPLANATION OF EXCESS BANK RESERVES AND MONETARY VELOCITY
Gold is at the highest level in almost 8 years. Oil is almost $41 barrel. The yield curve is the steepest in over five years. Many, me included, believe a reason for the above is the result of the exponential increase in the
A VOLATILE DAY
Equities were volatile Friday as both Arizona and Florida reported their biggest increases in Covd-19 since the pandemic began and Apple said it would close some stores in those states. Oil gained about
THE PHILLY FED WAS THE VERY DEFINITION OF A “V” RECOVERY
Yesterday’s jobless claims were not as good as many hoped but the regional Philly Fed Survey was literally off the chart. It read 27.5 versus an expected -21.4, a reading that was
REALITY VS PERCEPTION
The headlines are stating corona virus cases are “surging.” As stated yesterday, nationwide cases are rising 0.9% on a seven-day average versus 1.0% registered one week ago. Testing however is
THE DATA IS POSTING RECORD SURGES

Is a “V” shaped recovery at hand? Retail sales jumped in May by the most on record and double the forecast. Sales soared 17.7%, the most in data going back to 1992.  US home builder optimism also

AND WE THOUGHT 2016 WAS TECTONIC??!!

The flaws and fragility of France’s and more broadly Europe’s over reliance on global supply chains, from the car industry to smart phones and pharmaceuticals has been exposed. We must question this interdependence and the

A SEVEN PERCENT PLUNGE
Equities slumped over 7%, the most in 12 weeks as economic jitters returned. The selloff was huge as Bloomberg writes a record of all but 1 S & P 500 stocks fell. To further emphasize the breadth
THE OUTCOME OF THE FED MEETING WAS LARGELY AS EXPECTED
In my view, the outcome of the 2-day FOMC meeting largely met expectations. The Committee put a floor under its large-scale asset purchases and projected interest rates will

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