Market Commentary

Daily reports from our Chief Economic Strategist.

The August Payroll Number Was a Shock.
The August payroll number was a shock.  Yes the unemployment rate did fall to 6.1% from 6.2% but this was the result of worker’s leaving the work force pushing the labor participation rate down to 62.8% from July’s 62.9% level.   The LPR is matching the lowest level since 1978.
Tuesday I Wrote this Week has the Potential to Dictate the Direction of the Markets for the Immediate Future.
Tuesday I wrote this week has the potential to dictate the direction of the markets for the immediate future.  Based upon market performance, the data has been a nonevent as the S & P 500 is virtually unchanged, down 0.33%.
Many Times I Have Commented About the Lack of Monetary Velocity or the Turnover of Money and Its Impact Upon the Economy.
Many times I have commented about the lack of monetary velocity or the turnover of money and its impact upon the economy.  The St. Louis Fed recently published a report quantifying the impact of this lack of velocity.
Equities Led by the Energy Sector Traded Nominally Lower Yesterday on Profit Taking.
Equities led by the energy sector traded nominally lower yesterday on profit taking.  Treasuries declined significantly as prices have perhaps massively overshot “fully valued” given the economic and inflation environment.  In my view both markets have been inflated because of the massive amount of cash in the financial system, the result of global central bank monetary policy.
Will Geo Political Issues Ever Impact the Markets?
Will geo political issues ever impact the markets?  Perhaps the correct answer is when these issues start impacting economic activity.
Yesterday Was a Sleepy Day.
Yesterday was a sleepy day.  Today may bring more of the same given the already thinned trading ranks will become even smaller as  this is the eve of a three day weekend, the last hurrah of the summer.
Tags: cash, GDP, markets
There is Little I Can Write About Yesterday’s Market Action.
There is little I can write about yesterday’s market action.  A report showed there was the biggest ever jump in durable goods orders and consumer confidence unexpectedly increased.
Many Are Surprised at the Unrelenting Equity Advance.
Many are surprised at the unrelenting equity advance.  Three weeks ago all were pontificating the much needed “correction” was at hand.   After a 4% decline, some declared a correction had occurred and the rally can now continue.  I remarked if this was indeed “a correction,” this was the shortest and most painless correction I have yet experienced.
The Much Hyped Speech of FRB Chair Yellen has Come and Gone With Little Impact.
The much hyped speech of FRB Chair Yellen has come and gone with little impact.  Yellen’s remarks were similar to that of the July FOMC Minutes which showed the Committee growing more aware that labor markets are approaching full employment albeit  the “underutilization of labor resources still remains significant.”
The Much Hyped Speech of FRB Chair Yellen has Come and Gone with Little Impact.
The much hyped speech of FRB Chair Yellen has come and gone with little impact.  Yellen’s remarks were similar to that of the July FOMC Minutes which showed the Committee growing more aware that labor markets are approaching full employment albeit  the “underutilization of labor resources still remains significant.”

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