16 Aug ONCE IN FIVE THOUSAND YEARS!!
According to the Bank of England (BOE), short term interest rates are at the lowest level in 5,000 years of know financial history. Long term interest rates are also close to that level.
Ok, I did not find this statistic but rather reiterating the sleuthing of Loomis Sayles.
Wow! For those who are into utilizing statistics to make investment decisions this is something like 57 standard deviations away from the mean or an extraordinary extreme occurrence, where one has a higher probability of getting killed tonight by a meteor after winning the lottery and getting struck by lightning.
In my view many are incredibly complacent about the bond market, perhaps the result of five years of missed forecasts by all including outlooks prognosticated by such omnipotent and omniscient organizations as the Federal Reserve, Goldman Sachs and PIMCO.
It is widely accepted failed monetary and fiscal policy by the developed world is why yields are at these lows.
Perhaps the only certainty to write is yields will go up but when and by how much.
Speaking of which, the Treasury market did close lower between 8/32 and 24/32.
Equities advanced yesterday as the dollar fell and crude rallied amid the belief that short term interest rates will remain low.
Today housing starts and the CPI is posted. How will this data be interpreted?
Last night the foreign markets were down. London was down 0.33%, Paris down 0.52% and Frankfurt down 0.57%. China was up 0.67%, Japan down 1.62% Hang Sang down 0.09%.
The Dow should open quietly lower. The 10-year is up 5/32 to yield 1.54%.