POLITICALLY SPEAKING TODAY IS NOT AS TOXIC AS JULY 11, 1804

Equities were retraced some gains as House Speaker Pelosi said there could be no action on a stand-alone bill to aid airlines or any other sector the economy without an agreement on a broader economic stimulus package. As widely known the major issue at hand is aid to states that had/have the most stringent lockdowns. These states are predominately liberal with very generous transfer payments.

There is little debate that politics today is the most divisive in at least 2 generations. I ask is today more divisive than the 1960’s? Is it only worse because it is the here and now and most have not experienced anything similar to today?

Writing perhaps flippantly, today is not remotely as toxic as to when the sitting Vice President and Treasury Secretary had a duel, a duel that killed the Treasury Secretary. As all recall, this duel was about the electoral college, aid to cities and a woman as the VP was hoping to revive his failing political fortunes.

Next week is the commencement of earnings season. Will the markets remain focused on stimulus? There is a debate amongst Federal Reserves officials as to whether more stimulus is needed albeit this is a minority view.

Last night the foreign markets were mixed. London was up 0.53%, Paris up 0.33% and Frankfurt down 0.10%. China was up 1.68%, Japan down 0.12% and Hang Sang up 0.31%.

The Dow should open nominally higher on stimulus news. The 10-year is up 5/32 to yield 0.77%.

 

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