26 Mar SOME FACTOIDS
All markets surged yesterday on the tentative passage of the stimulus. As I have stated, I am wondering whether the cost is worse than the disease. As noted yesterday, the global economic cost is around $120 trillion. Wow!
Below are some coronavirus odds. All data is from John Hopkins and were as of 5:00 PM yesterday.
I must first write that I am not Pollyannaish nor am I throwing caution. For example, I wash my hands before eating, using a paper towel to turn off the faucets and to open the doors back to my office. I am also practice social distancing.
With the above disclaimers, there are 7.8 billion people in the world. There are 458,000 known cases and 20,807 deaths. The odds of contracting corona the virus is 0.00557%. The odds of dying from the virus is 0.00025%. In other words one has a 99.99975% probability of dying from something else.
The odds of winning a typical Powerball lottery is 0.001%.
In other words the odds are 500% higher of winning the Powerball than dying from corona virus.
In the US there are 53,600 cases and 703 deaths. As in Italy, the CDC reports 99% of New York deaths the patient had underlying health issues such as heart or respiratory diseases.
According Johns Hopkins, the US percentage death rate of those infected with the disease was 1.6% on 3/18, falling to 1.3% on 3/22, 3/23 and 3/24.
It is expected diagnosed cases will increase with greater testing which will drop the percentage death rate to perhaps to the same level as the typical flu.
The media is extremely apocalyptic. Last week more people read stories about the coronavirus than visits to adult internet sites. Adult internet sites are/were about 55% of all Internet traffic.
According to the Atlantic Monthly 75% of all on line stories are written by robots. Atlantic Monthly also stated 50% of all financial stories are written by robots. (Note: I do not know how this data was collected) Story algorithms are determined by the number of hits and hyper links to a story, thus suggesting more stories beget more stories as such drive advertising dollars.
In other words, is SkyNet again out of control?
I again ask is the prevention worse than the disease? Economic Advisor Larry Kudlow stated US fiscal stimulus is now about 30% of annual GDP. Have the seeds of the next crisis been sowed defined as inflationary growth when the rebound commences?
I reiterate these dramatic actions are required to stem the total government induced implosion of society and the economy. The patient is about to die without such actions.
We will overcome. This too shall pass and we will emerge stronger and more unified.
Keep the faith!!! And yes, Hope is a strategy.
What will happen today? Weekly jobless claims are expected to surpass 1.7 million, vastly eclipsing the previous record of 695,000 set in October 1982.
Last night the foreign markets were down. London was down 1.68%, Paris down 1.79%, and Frankfurt down 2.05%. China was down 0.60%, Japan down 4.51% and Hang Sang down 0.74%.
The Dow should open “nominally lower” following the late-night Senate passage of the stimulus package. The 10-year is up 26/32 to yield 0.792%.