SOME INCREDIBLE ELECTORAL DATA

I received considerable feedback about my comment that the People have spoken on the local, state and federal level.  Yes President Obama won two presidential elections by substantial margins, but his win was personal and non-transferable.

During his eight years in office the Democratic majority in the house yielded to the largest Republican majority since 1928.   In 2009 the president’s first year, the Democrats held 257 House seats, a majority that was geographically and politically diverse.  Today the figure stands at 193 and fully one third of these Democrats hail from three states; New York, California and Massachusetts.

Republicans took over the Senate in 2014 and held it this year against daunting odds.

At the state level, Republicans gained more than 900 legislative seats since President Obama was inaugurated.  Democrats controlled 60 of the 99 state legislatures in 2010.  Today it is 30.  Today the Republican Party controls a record 69 of 99 legislative majorities across the country.

There are now only 4 states that have a democratic legislature and governorship.  Wow!

As Mr. Obama took office, 29 governors were Democrats.  This total now stands at 15.

Some are blaming Trump’s incredible upset on “white-lash.”  The statistics suggest otherwise for the roughly 700 countries that Mr. Obama won twice; about one third broke this time for Mr. Trump.

I cynically ask do two overwhelming Obama victories and the loss of 210 counties that voted eight successive years for Obama suggest there is oppressive racism or is one party just out of touch with reality?

It is evident the Democratic Party support is primarily concentrated in large urban areas.  Data according to Dick Morris there is a record 106 million people receiving federal aid.  There are 110 million people working.  Thirty five percent of those receiving aid are means tested, defined as social security recipitants are excluded from this 35%.

The Democratic Party actively courted this large group who is on the government dole but lost.

Generally speaking the 110 million workers rose up.  It was not a racist or homophobic uprising.  The uprising was not people who hate women or immigrants but rather the silent majority who reached the proverbial tipping point, tired of being told of what to do and what to think.

We Americans are giving, tolerant and forgiving but at some point attitudes radically change screaming enough is enough.  That point, which was already confirmed on the state and federal level, reached the Executive crescendo last week.

Where to now?  Will President Trump squander his opportunity in a similar fashion as President Obama?  Only history will answer this question.  However President Trump has already defied every other odd therefore I think the odds of such a squanderance are low.

Is this the reason why the Russell 2000 just achieved its highest level since June 2015 while the NASDAQ fell again led by the “must own stocks, declining about 0.50%?”  What about the Treasury market which has been crushed about 70 basis points since the election?  Monies are rapidly exiting the investment grade rated market where as the non-investment grade market has found stability following a four month drubbing.

Last night the foreign markets were mixed. .London was up 0.40%, Paris up 0.09% and Frankfurt down 0.13%.  China was down 0.11%, Japan down 0.03%and Hang Sang up 0.46%.

The Dow should open quietly higher as all are assessing what a Trump presidency might bring.   The 10-year is up 14/32 to yield 2.21%.

kent
The views expressed herein are those of Kent Engelke and do not necessarily reflect those of Capitol Securities Management. The information contained herein has been compiled from sources believed to be reliable; however, there is no guarantee of its accuracy or completeness. Any opinions expressed are statements of judgment on this date and are subject to certain risks and uncertainties which could cause actual results to differ materially from those currently anticipated or projected. Any future dividends, interest, yields and event dates listed may be subject to change. An investor cannot invest in an index, and its returns are not indicative of the performance of any specific investment. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The material provided in Daily Market Commentaries or on this website should be used for informational purposes only and in no way should be relied upon for financial advice. Please be sure to consult your own financial advisor when making decisions regarding your financial management. Members of FINRA and SIPC, Capitol Securities Management is a privately owned full-service retail brokerage and investment advisory firm headquartered in Richmond, Virginia. For nearly 30 years, we have been serving the needs of our investors. Today, more than 200 Capitol Securities Management investment professionals and support staff serve approximately 18,000 customer accounts from Southern Florida to the New England coast.