Earlier in the week I commented President Trump controls the trade news cycle, writing all he has to do is tweet and immediately change the narrative. Yesterday markets were going to open on their back foot until the President sent a tweet about ...
Yesterday a veteran market professional commented “experience and common sense seem to be useless commodities in the world today.” I cannot agree more with this statement especially regarding the amount of negative interest rate debt outstanding…$12.5 trillion. The amount of negative real interest rate debt...
Last week, the 10-year Treasury dipped below 2% for the first time since November 2016. Six months ago the most bullish Treasury prognosticator was predicting a 2.50% rate and the consensus view was ...
The Federal Reserve left borrowing costs unchanged and signaled an openness to future cuts based upon trade and economic activity. There was one dissent, voting to move the target range to ...
Will there be a change in monetary policy announced today at the conclusion of the FOMC meeting? At the end of May’s meeting the Committee lowered the interest rate the Fed pays on excess bank reserves for the yield was ...
Always expect the unexpected. Late last week the 10 year Treasury traded to a 2.07% yield down from a 3.23% yield registered in late November. According to the WSJ, the lowest 2019 projected yield from a late 2018 survey of the largest Wall Street firms...
Yesterday I referenced an UBS report about the lack of liquidity in the bond market under the guise of “it is not what you say but rather why you say it” specifically stating the lack of liquidity is perhaps impacting overall profitability. On Wednesday, UBS announced...
Treasury prices have been surging. Yields are now around 90 basis points (0.90%) lower than they were about three months ago. In other words, yields have dropped over 33% with the large minority of this decline occurring since the March Fed meeting, the meeting...
We are we going? Three months ago the global consensus view was growth. Three months later, the inverse. According to Bloomberg, since November the global universe of negative yielding debt has surged by 75% to approximately $10 trillion. The apex was ...
The “official” yield curve inverted Friday, defined as the 90 day Treasury yielding more than the 10 year Treasury. This is the first inversion since 2007. The catalyst for this inversion was the Fed’s surprisingly dovish turn amplified by ...