TECH SHARES AND GOLD ADVANCED

Both technology stocks and gold advanced yesterday.  Treasuries fell nominally in price.  Inflationary pressures were greater than expected and some are beginning to question whether or not this is a one-off event or something that is more systemic?

The answer to this question may greatly impact all markets.

The discussion as whether or not Russia has a bona fide vaccine was not as dominating as it was the day before.

In my view the general narrative about COVID may be changing given the start of the school year.  By casual observation, there appears to be some reporting about the psychological impact of maintaining the shutdown.

Several credible sources have discussed at length the massive increase in depression and loneliness of school age children, levels reaching epidemic proportions of approximately 45% of this targeted population.

Wow!  What will be the long-term impact of such a massive increase in depression?

To write the obvious, increased shutdowns will impact economic activity which will in turn influence the outcome of the election.

As noted above, in some regards I think society is starting to accept that we must learn how to live with virus and protect those who are at risk.

As per the CDC since February 1, those under 25 years old, a demographic group that represents 31.8% of society and 1.8% of total deaths during this period, is responsible for 0.02% of COVID deaths.

On the other hand, as per the CDC, those 85 and older which is 2% of the population have accounted for 30.4% of total deaths and 32.2% of COVID deaths.  The demographic group of 75-84 accounts for 4.7% of the population and 26.4% of COVID deaths.

It can be pivotal as too how a possible change in attitude plays out, emphasizing as too who is at risk versus the proverbial carpet bombing of the economy and society under the impossible task eradicating the disease via another total shutdown of the economy and massive isolation of all.

Last night the foreign markets were down.  London was down 1.07%, Paris down 0.24% and Frankfurt down 0.24%.  China was up 0.05%, Japan up 1.78% and Hang Sang down 0.05%.

The Dow should open nominally lower as the stimulus talks remain deadlocked and before weekly unemployment claims.   The 10-year is up 4/32 to yield 0.68%.

 

The views expressed herein are those of Kent Engelke and do not necessarily reflect those of Capitol Securities Management. Any opinions expressed are statements of judgment on this date and are subject to certain risks and uncertainties which could cause actual results to differ materially from those currently anticipated or projected. Any future dividends, interest, yields and event dates listed may be subject to change. An investor cannot invest in an index, and its returns are not indicative of the performance of any specific investment. Past performance is not indicative of future results. This material is being provided for informational purposes only. Any information should not be deemed a recommendation to buy, hold or sell any security. Certain information has been obtained from third-party sources we consider reliable, but we do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete. This report is not a complete description of the securities, markets, or developments referred to in this material and does not include all available data necessary for making an investment decision. Prior to making an investment decision, please consult with your financial advisor about your individual situation. Investing involves risk and you may incur a profit or loss regardless of strategy selected. There is no guarantee that the statements, opinions or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct. If you would like to unsubscribe from this e-mail distribution, please reply to this e-mail and indicate that you wish to unsubscribe in your response.