THERE IS A V SHAPE RECOVERY…WILL IT CONTINUE?

June’s retail sales greatly exceeded expectations, rising 7.5% from May.  A year over year measure of retail sales climbed 1.1% in June according to the Commerce Department. This is marked improvement from the 20% decline in April but is still below the long-term trend of 2.0%.

Personally, I am encouraged and surprised by the data as rhetorically I would not expect retail sales to be higher than one year ago.

Other data was also very encouraging as both the Philadelphia Fed and the NAHB Housing Index also greatly surprised on the upside.

The economy is in a V recovery but the question that no one can answer is whether the increase in Covid cases will stifle the unexpectedly strong rebound.  To adamantly suggest the strength or the lack of thereof of tomorrow’s economy is rhetorical at best, with caveat being the approval of a vaccine.

I believe all must accept the notion Covid is very political, a politization that is amplified because of the significance of November’s election.  In my view there is a very stark difference between the two candidates and the outcome can greatly influence the direction and philosophy of the country.

What will happen today?

Last night the foreign markets were mixed.   London was up 0.52%, Paris down 0.17% and Frankfurt up 0.41%.  China was up 0.69%, Japan down 0.32% and Hang Sang up 0.47%.

The Dow should open nervously flat as Netflix posted tepid earnings, challenging the un relenting advance of many mega sized technology and social media companies perhaps suggesting the prices are priced way beyond perfection. The 10-year is up 4/32 to yield 0.61%.

 

The views expressed herein are those of Kent Engelke and do not necessarily reflect those of Capitol Securities Management. The information contained herein has been compiled from sources believed to be reliable; however, there is no guarantee of its accuracy or completeness. Any opinions expressed are statements of judgment on this date and are subject to certain risks and uncertainties which could cause actual results to differ materially from those currently anticipated or projected. Any future dividends, interest, yields and event dates listed may be subject to change. An investor cannot invest in an index, and its returns are not indicative of the performance of any specific investment. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The material provided in Daily Market Commentaries or on this website should be used for informational purposes only and in no way should be relied upon for financial advice. Please be sure to consult your own financial advisor when making decisions regarding your financial management. Members of FINRA and SIPC, Capitol Securities Management is a privately owned full-service retail brokerage and investment advisory firm headquartered in Richmond, Virginia. For nearly 30 years, we have been serving the needs of our investors. Today, more than 200 Capitol Securities Management investment professionals and support staff serve approximately 18,000 customer accounts from Southern Florida to the New England coast.