03 Feb Today I Believe There is no Leadership; There is Only the Positioning of Diametrically Opposite Views.
For the first time in many weeks, I can write there was little to discuss about yesterday’s trading.
Yes I can reiterate about the incredible rally in Treasuries which just posted their best monthly return since December 2008, leaving Treasuries in my view are more valued than the NASADQ was in February 2000.
Or I can again mention about the inmates running the Greek asylum or the President’s budget which is DOA.
Or maybe I can again discuss growing global anarchy or the huge plunge in crude which is threatening the very existence of countries and is ripe for an oversold rally.
However all the above is known with little change.
The other day I had conversation where the person only wanted certainty. In my view today is perhaps more uncertain than 2008-09. Wow! What a sensationalist comment for the face of American capitalism was then changing on a daily basis.
Today I believe there is no leadership; there is only the positioning of diametrically opposite views. There is no “All for one and one for all” ethos, lacking a unifying person that convinces all that the impossible can be accomplished.
How long will such an environment exist? Unfortunately foreign policy cycles are long and I will argue that the world is only at the introductory salvo. Not an encouraging view given approximately 48% of the S & P 500 revenues and 52% of the S & P 500 profits are generated via trade.
The Dow however did stage a late day rally, the result of perhaps of a Greek debt deal.
Last night the foreign markets were up. London was up 1.17%, Paris up 1.22% and Frankfurt up 1.18%. Japan was down 1.27% and Hang Sang up 0.29%.
The Dow should open moderately higher following the news of a Greek debt swap which potentially ends the possibility of a write down. Will it work? Oil is up for the fourth consecutive day. The 10-year is off 13/32 to yield 1.71%.