04 Nov WAS LAST NIGHT GALACTICAL?
Wow! Volumes will be written about the election. The polls were extremely inaccurate, the highly forecasted “Blue Wave” did not occur as according to a 7:00 AM report from both NBC and Bloomberg the Republicans picked up seats in the House and the Republicans remained in control of the Senate. And then there is the Presidency. One pundit exclaimed last night was a “Red Wave” occurred given the actual results were greatly different than the forecasted outcome.
I nor anyone else knows when this race will be resolved. There are five states where the election still has not been determined. At the time of this writing, the President is in the lead in four of five of these states but as stated not all votes have been counted.
Will this be the most contested Presidential race in history? I don’t know as I do not know what to believe given the apparent one sidedness in the reporting of this election.
Speaking of which, will an information vacuum become a major issue for the markets? Perhaps the greatest losers of this election is the further erosion of the credibility and objectivity of both the media and polls.
Credible information is required to make informed decisions. I am ardent believer it is not what one does but rather why one does it.
It is almost universally agreed that a contested election will increase market volatility.
At the time of this writing the S & P is expected to open flat and the NASDAQ up about 2%. Oil is up another 2% the 10-year up almost a point. The only major market that is responding “accordingly” to a potential contested outcome are Treasuries.
There are a number of top tier data points released today but today this information is regarded only as noise.
Last night the foreign markets were mixed. London was up 0.43%, Paris up 0.65% and Frankfurt up 0.30%. China was up 0.19%, Japan up 1.72% and Hang Sang down 0.21%.