WILL A CONCLUSIVE WINNER BE KNOWN TONIGHT?

Will we know the outcome of the election tonight?  If we believe the polls or if enthusiasm is indeed “your force multiplier,” it could be an early evening.

Like all I hope there is no violence.  Unfortunately, I believe the odds are rising regardless who wins given the animosity and vitriol that is beyond hyperbolic proportions.

As a student of history, I believe the 1960’s was more vitriolic than today, however I have no first-hand experience as I was a young child.  Today may appear worse because it is the here and now and many of us have not yet experience such politically and socially calamitous times.

I reiterate today’s election can be galactical defined as something that is huge given some of the proposals espoused by Candidate Biden, proposals the can potentially alter the socio-economic structure via a partial rewrite of the Constitution and his proposed tax, spend and regulatory polices.

If history is used as a precedent, a presidential candidate that adopts a radical agenda historically loses in a landslide.  If enthusiasm is indeed the “force multiplier,” one candidate’s supporters appear considerably more enthusiastic than the other.  Against this backdrop, the President will have a second term.

On the other hand, if the polls are accurate, the VP will become President.

Which scenario is correct as both scenarios could have infinite ramifications.

Regardless, neither of the above scenarios will produce the feared contested outcome and all can be in bed by 1100 PM.

Commenting on market activity, equity markets were bifurcated as the NASDAQ was up about 0.42% and the S & P was up 1.2% on the strength of the oils and financials. Bloomberg writes the two day  rotation out of the “FANG” trade is at the greatest point since the September 2014 inception of this data point.  The 10-year was up 7/32.

Last night the foreign markets were up.  London was up 2.02%, Paris up 2.04%  and Frankfurt up 1.80%.  China was up 1.42%,  Japan up 1.39%  and Hang Sang up 1.96%.

The Dow should open moderately higher.   The 10-year is off 7/32 to yield 0.87%.

 

The views expressed herein are those of Kent Engelke and do not necessarily reflect those of Capitol Securities Management. The information contained herein has been compiled from sources believed to be reliable; however, there is no guarantee of its accuracy or completeness. Any opinions expressed are statements of judgment on this date and are subject to certain risks and uncertainties which could cause actual results to differ materially from those currently anticipated or projected. Any future dividends, interest, yields and event dates listed may be subject to change. An investor cannot invest in an index, and its returns are not indicative of the performance of any specific investment. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The material provided in Daily Market Commentaries or on this website should be used for informational purposes only and in no way should be relied upon for financial advice. Please be sure to consult your own financial advisor when making decisions regarding your financial management. Members of FINRA and SIPC, Capitol Securities Management is a privately owned full-service retail brokerage and investment advisory firm headquartered in Richmond, Virginia. For nearly 30 years, we have been serving the needs of our investors. Today, more than 200 Capitol Securities Management investment professionals and support staff serve approximately 18,000 customer accounts from Southern Florida to the New England coast.