WILL A CONCLUSIVE WINNER BE KNOWN TONIGHT?

Will we know the outcome of the election tonight?  If we believe the polls or if enthusiasm is indeed “your force multiplier,” it could be an early evening.

Like all I hope there is no violence.  Unfortunately, I believe the odds are rising regardless who wins given the animosity and vitriol that is beyond hyperbolic proportions.

As a student of history, I believe the 1960’s was more vitriolic than today, however I have no first-hand experience as I was a young child.  Today may appear worse because it is the here and now and many of us have not yet experience such politically and socially calamitous times.

I reiterate today’s election can be galactical defined as something that is huge given some of the proposals espoused by Candidate Biden, proposals the can potentially alter the socio-economic structure via a partial rewrite of the Constitution and his proposed tax, spend and regulatory polices.

If history is used as a precedent, a presidential candidate that adopts a radical agenda historically loses in a landslide.  If enthusiasm is indeed the “force multiplier,” one candidate’s supporters appear considerably more enthusiastic than the other.  Against this backdrop, the President will have a second term.

On the other hand, if the polls are accurate, the VP will become President.

Which scenario is correct as both scenarios could have infinite ramifications.

Regardless, neither of the above scenarios will produce the feared contested outcome and all can be in bed by 1100 PM.

Commenting on market activity, equity markets were bifurcated as the NASDAQ was up about 0.42% and the S & P was up 1.2% on the strength of the oils and financials. Bloomberg writes the two day  rotation out of the “FANG” trade is at the greatest point since the September 2014 inception of this data point.  The 10-year was up 7/32.

Last night the foreign markets were up.  London was up 2.02%, Paris up 2.04%  and Frankfurt up 1.80%.  China was up 1.42%,  Japan up 1.39%  and Hang Sang up 1.96%.

The Dow should open moderately higher.   The 10-year is off 7/32 to yield 0.87%.

 

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