24 Jul WILL THERE BE ANY ATTEMPT OF PUTTING TODAY INTO PERSPECTIVE?
Led by the NASDAQ 100 equites stumbled for a myriad of reasons. Some believe mega capitalized technologies are fully priced and only massively outsized earnings will support valuations
Others believe the economy/markets have been boosted by stimulus, stimulus which is in its waning days, disappointed that only $1 trillion more may be added. Others are pointing to jobless claims which rose for the first time since March, the result of some businesses again closing. I must write ongoing claims again declined.
Gold and silver continued their advance closing higher for the fifth consecutive day, the longest streak in 10 years according to Bloomberg. The dollar slipped. Most will agree the increase in the national debt is dictating the direction of precious metals and the dollar.
Radically changing topics, according to the WSJ a record 854,858 people were tested Tuesday for Corona. To date over 60 million tests have been conducted. There are approximately 4.04 million confirmed cases and 144,000 deaths.
[Note: The Census Department has estimated 185,000 additional deaths have occurred during the March-June time period as compared to comparable period of prior years that are not the result of a coronavirus infection.]
Approximately 50% of corona deaths have occurred in nursing homes and 98% of deaths the individual had at least two comorbidities. Moreover, based upon statistical interpolation, over 50 million Americans now have antibodies according to the CDC.
According to the February 28 report that shuttered the economy, by September cases were expected to top 200 million and deaths to reach 2.2 million.
There are two questions that need to be answered. First, the CDC/government/bureaucracy must explain why the February 28 report was so inaccurate. The greatest economic calamity in at least three generations was the result of this report. Trillions have been spent and millions of lives have been shattered. Should there be any accountability?
Second question or perhaps statement. Should the government/CDC/bureaucracy place the number of tests into context, specifically stating the more tests performed the more cases expected to discover. Approximately 19% of the country has been tested.
In an attempt to give some perspective, according to the CDC during the 2018-19 flu season, there was an estimated 35.5 million flu cases which resulted in 16.5 million medical visits, 490,000 hospitalizations and 35,000 deaths.
Corona is unique, defined as no one never had it before therefore everyone is potentially at risk. However, what is not unique is those who are traditionally at risk appear to be more at risk as evidenced by death rate in victims that have the presence of at least two comorbidities.
Unfortunately, Corona is almost entirely political and attempts of discussing it in a more logical and pragmatic matter is often shut down.
To write the incredible obvious, the response to greater corona cases will directly impact the economy and the markets.
What will happen today?
Last night the foreign markets were down. London was down 1.14%, Paris down 1.26% and Frankfurt down 1.46%. China was down 3.86%, Japan down 0.58% and Hang Sang down 2.21%.
The Dow should open nominally lower amid trade concerns and worries that the increase in virus cases will stall the rebound. The dollar is lower again and precious metals/oil are rising. The 10-year is unchanged at 0.58%.