A clouded outlook for monetary policy is weighing upon all markets. For about 43 days all were flying almost blind making decisions in a vacuum because of the shutdown. A deluge of data is on the verge of being released but many may be initially skeptical believing the statistics could be dated or clouded. Little … Read more
Markets came under pressure over concerns about the direction of monetary policy. Will the FOMC lower rates again in four weeks? A ton of data is expected to be released in the coming weeks, a lot of it old, cloudy or suspect given the length of the government shutdown. To make any concrete statement is … Read more
In the $150 trillion global bond market, some are beginning to conclude that corporate bonds are safer than the sovereign debt of the world’s largest economies. Until recently and the AI mania, corporate America had been reducing indebtedness while many countries including the US continue to spend recklessly. Bloomberg reports the average debt-to output ratio … Read more
A deluge of data is about to hit the markets, the result of the ending of the longest government shutdown in history. As commented, data distortions might not be resolved until early next year. The Atlanta Fed’s GDP Now model is projecting a 4.0% GDP annual growth rate for the third quarter, significantly above the … Read more
It appears the longest government shutdown on record is about to end. The news sent both yields and equities higher. If the government is on the verge of reopening there will be a deluge of data, a flood that may be murky or dated, an environment that may not be fully clear until early 2026. … Read more
The cross currents are huge. The Atlanta Fed’s GDP Now model is projecting a 4.0% GDP for the third quarter of 2025. This signals economic expansion well above the long-term historical average of 3.2%. How accurate is this forecast given the government shutdown? A private sector consumer sentiment survey was released Friday indicating sentiment has … Read more
A third-tier employment report was the catalyst for a moderate decline in equities and an advance in Treasury prices. The Challenger Jobs Cuts Survey, a survey that typically attracts little attention, indicated that companies slashed the greatest number of jobs for the month of October since 2003. Wednesday, equities rallied on the ADP Private Sector … Read more
The few data points that have been released have indicated increasing economic strength. The ISM Service Sector, which represents about 70% of the economy, expanded in October by the fastest pace in eight months. The reading exceeded all estimates. Unfortunately, the rebound in demand was also accompanied by more pronounced inflationary pressures as the group’s … Read more
Monday the attitude towards the Magnificent Seven was beyond giddiness proportions. On the other hand, yesterday there were warnings galore regarding the run up in anything AI related. Will the attitude again change? At casual glance, half of the financial media believes AI is in a bubble while the other half thinks there are great … Read more
The Magnificent Seven advanced about 1.5% yesterday even as 400 S & P 500 companies declined yesterday. The pressure to perform, the fear of missing out, the outright giddiness surrounding these shares believing that these companies are unstoppable and impervious to any type of issues is incredible. This trend will continue until it does not, … Read more
