Commenting on perhaps two of today’s driving narratives is difficult; monetary policy/tariffs and AI spending. How are they interconnected? The markets are suggesting an 80% chance of an interest rate cut next week. One of the largest questions that cannot be answered but is a primary determinant of longer-term Treasury yields, what is the neutral … Read more
The start of historically strong month, most markets declined amid a steep selloff in cryptocurrencies. A rout in Japanese debt rippled through global bonds which caused the US yield curve to be its steepest since early 2022. Commenting further about Japanese debt, Japan’s benchmark yields hit the highest since 2008 on signs that the nation … Read more
Optimism is surging the FOMC will lower rates next week and perhaps three more times in 2026. This outlook is/was the catalyst for last week’s markets advance As noted many times, over the last five years the disconnect between market expectations and Fed policy was great. Moreover, there was/is also a large difference between what … Read more
A major question at hand does the present valuation of NVDA reflect all the good news and then some? NVDA is down about 25% in about 20 trading days. CNBC states that the company has declined almost $1 trillion in this short period, a decline that has accelerated after a “really good quarter and bullish … Read more
Fed Reserve Governor Christopher Waller fueled optimism that an interest rate cut will occur next month. This comment on top of Friday’s remark from the NY Fed President echoing a similar sentiment, has reenergized equites. At the time of this writing the market is now suggesting a 80% chance of further easing in December, up … Read more
Equites had a good day on Friday as over 450 companies in the S & P 500 advanced, the catalyst of which was a Federal Reserve comment that an interest rate cut remains a possibility. Sentiment however is fragile, with Bitcoin set for its worst month since a string of corporate collapses rocked the sector … Read more
Optimism over AI initially outweighed doubts over whether the Fed will cut rates in December. NVDA delivered initially sending NASDAQ about 2% higher. Perhaps the appropriate question is whether the pending orders received by NVDA will materialize. Consensus is split as to whether the four largest technology companies can or have the ability to actually … Read more
A headline read yesterday “Nvidia earnings loom large, putting over 700 ETFs on edge.” NVDA’s massive capitalization—and the tentacles of its business lines to the largest companies in the world—has a profound influence on the direction of the indices. Writing the obvious if NVDA’s results are strong, projecting bigger sales and activity, then for immediacy … Read more
A selloff in the world’s largest tech names drove equities towards their longest slide since August, underscoring the narrow reliance on a handful of growth giants. As noted the other day, according to Bloomberg, 41 companies of the S & P 500 are considered tech/AI and are about 49% of the S & P 500’s … Read more
Equites were nervously lower yesterday ahead of NVDA’s earnings that is released tomorrow and September’ s jobs report posted on Thursday that could question the direction of monetary policy. Also released this week are, Home Depot’s, Target’s and Walmart’s earnings, results that can offer some insight as to how the government shutdown has impacted the … Read more
