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THE UNSTOPPABLE MAGNIFICIENT SEVEN…AND LONG-TERM GOVERNMENT YIELDS

The Magnificent Seven advanced about 1.5% yesterday even as 400 S & P 500 companies declined yesterday.  The pressure to perform, the fear of missing out, the outright giddiness surrounding these shares believing that these companies are unstoppable and impervious to any type of issues is incredible.  This trend will continue until it does not, … Read more

OPTIMISM AT HISTORIC PROPORTIONS…A CHANGE IN THE NEUTRAL RATE?

Optimism is at giddy proportions that revolutionary technology and optimism that the Federal Reserve will continue to lower interest rates is boosting the S & P with gargantuan short-term gains in the largest technology companies.  The gains in NVDA are incomprehensible. It took 24 years, 4 months and 8 days for NVDA to be worth … Read more

NOT A BAD DAY CONSIDERING….

The popular indices held up very well yesterday given the 13% drubbing of META and 4% decline in MSFT.  As widely discussed, the Magnificent Seven has been the primary driver of index valuation at the expense of most other companies.  Government data states there is about $45.8 trillion in retirement assets.  According to Vanguard, 45% … Read more

CAN TODAY BE ONE OF SIGNIFICANCE?

Will today be one of great significance?  The FOMC is expected to lower interest rates by 0.25%.  Most will be paying close attention to the post-meeting statement and outlook.  And then there are the earnings releases of some of the largest companies in the world.  At the close GOOG, MSFT and META post results.  Tomorrow … Read more

IS A TRADE AGREEMENT AGAIN AT HAND?

Led by the NASDAQ, equities rose on the hopes that the UU and China are nearing a trade deal.  Cypto, gold and bonds all fell. It is also almost a certainty that the Fed will lower rates by 0.25% on Tuesday.  It is the forward looking statements that will be of great interest. Also five … Read more

CPI WAS LOWER THAN EXPECTED

September’s CPI data all but assured a rate cut at this week’s FOMC meeting.  The statistics also increased the odds of yet another reduction before year’s end and a total of four by June 2026. The core CPI, excluding food and energy, increased 0.2% from August, the slowest pace in three months.  On an annual … Read more

CPI RELEASED AT 8:30

The CPI is expected to be released today even though the government is shutdown.  A limited number of employees were recalled to compute the calculations as they are paramount for the calculations for next year’s social security’s COLA.  Inflation is expected to increase by 0.4% in September.  The core rate is expected to rise by … Read more

HOW ACCURATE ARE OPENAI PROJECTIONS?

Earnings season for the mega sized tech companies commenced yesterday as TSLA reported mixed earnings, sending shares lower by 3.5%. As widely discussed, the mega techs have completely dominated the markets since COVID, if not before.  The attention (hype) around AI is intense. Some mind-numbing data published by Citicorp about AI.  According to the Bank, … Read more

A PRECIOUS METALS SELLOFF…EQUITIES GENERALLY MIXED

Yesterday gold plunged by the most in a dozen years while silver had its biggest drop since 2021.  Spot gold fell as much as 6.3% while spot silver dopped up to 8.7% before staging a nominal recovery. Both metals have rallied significantly throughout the year leaving the metals in perceived overbought territory.  An issue at … Read more