Job growth exceeded expectations in June for a fourth straight month, and the unemployment rate unexpectedly declined, crushing expectations of a July rate cut. The chance of a September rate cut was reduced to about 75%. Payrolls increased 147,000 after slight upward revision to the prior two months and compared with a median forecast of … Read more
FRB Chair Powell stated yesterday that the Central Bank expects the inflationary aspects of the tariffs will be felt later in the year. Powell also commented the FOMC probably would have cut rates further this year absent the threat/use of tariffs. When the Fed Chief was asked about a July reduction, he did not rule … Read more
Welcome to the second half of 2025. In less than one calendar quarter, we have seen the perhaps the most insane public policy announcement in years (“Liberation Day”), a massive market collapse from such, a complete policy reversal, a massive market reversal, an Israel-Iran flare-up that appears to have lasted twelve days, an oil spike, … Read more
Perhaps on the narrowest of rallies from the tariff induced April lows, the narrative is rising that the recent rebound—described as the “mother of buy on dip”—is poised to be tested in the coming weeks. The President’s 90-day extension on reciprocal tariffs is set to expire on July 9. And then there is “One Big … Read more
FRB Powell’s two-day Congressional testimony has concluded. No new ground was broken and perhaps the phrase “heightened uncertainty” is an understatement of the current environment. War in the Middle East could drive oil prices sharply higher and tariffs that are already in place raise the prospect of higher prices for both consumers and businesses. The … Read more
Equites advanced on hopes that a de-escalation of the Middle East conflict will prevent a flare up in inflation. FRB Chair Powell’s Congressional testimony was largely a non-event other than the Fed Chief adding “many paths are possible” for monetary policy. Markets keyed in on his statement that if inflation pressures remained contained “we will … Read more
Despite ominous headlines, oil prices did not rise on Monday and market fears of the conflict spreading remain low. Is complacency too great, setting most up for failure or are the events just indeed noise? The Middle East accounts for about a third of global crude production, but there have not been any signs of … Read more
Considerable attention has been focused upon the proliferation of zero-day-to expiration options. As noted the other day, the CBOE states retail traders—defined as trading 10 options contracts or less—now represent the majority of S & P 500 options, often exceeding half of the total trading in the S & P 500 itself. Call volume greatly … Read more
Equities were initially nominally lower ahead of today’s outcome of the FOMC meeting. No change in monetary policy is expected, however the comments surrounding tariffs and the Middle East conflict will be closely scrutinized. Selling accelerated following the President’s comments that Iran must “unconditionally surrender.” Oil rallied about 4% as did the dollar and Treasuries … Read more
Equites rallied off the headline that Iran wants to restart nuclear talks. The Blomberg headline immediately below read “Isreal denies reports that Iran wants to de-escalate.” The very next headline reads “Iran Ready to deliver major Blow to Isreal” according to a senior Iranian official. What headline is correct? As noted several times the first … Read more
