Will today’s unemployment data confirm or deny the emerging narrative the US economy is gaining momentum? Data released in recent weeks is suggesting first quarter growth is perhaps accelerating from last quarter’s 1.0% level to 2.5% to 3.0%....
Equities fluctuated following a rebound in crude prices. Inventory data suggested gasoline demand is increasing. As noted yesterday, US production is now at the lowest level since November 2014 and OPEC production declined in February for the first time in several years....
Yesterday I commented OPEC oil production declined by 79,000 barrels during February, the result of lower Iraqi output which declined by 125,000 barrels. Several times I remarked that according to the Iraqi oil minister its 2016 daily production may decline from 4.4 million to 3.9...
Until 3:00 P.M. there is little to write about yesterday’s market action. Equities were flat, the dollar fell and oil rallied. Then there was a selloff, minor in regards to the selloffs’ past but enough to send the S & P down for the third...
In my view, I think today it is paramount to have a macroeconomic/geopolitical thesis to make investment decisions as I believe the markets/economy are at a major crossroads. Either the market has it correct and the environment is miserable or the Federal Reserve/PIMOC/Goldman has it...
Several times I have commented the first quarter will be the inverse from the first quarter of the last five years, defined as growth will be stronger than expected. As all recall growth stalled in the first quarters’ of 2011-2015....
As most know equities are 90% correlated to oil. Oil advances so do equities and vice versa. Yesterday crude was down over 3%. Equities were down about 1.5%. Inventory data was released indicating gasoline inventories fell which is suggesting greater crude demand in the immediate...
Yesterday oil fell as did equities as the correlation between the two is extremely close, a correlation that has been in existence for over 20 months. The catalyst for oil’s decline; Iran stated it will refuse to halt its planned output expansion and Saudi Arabia...
Equities rallied on the strength of oil. Oil advanced because of a partial OPEC/Russian production freeze commencing before March 1. Is this production freeze of significance or is such acknowledging that OPEC/Russian production cannot increase from current levels because of the lack of infrastructure spending?...
Is inflation increasing? The narrative has been myopically focused upon deflation for a myriad of reasons. Last week’s release of both the PPI and CPI indicated that inflation is perhaps accelerating....