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MAY’S UNEMPLOYMENT DATA RELEASED AT 8:30

What will today’s jobs data suggest?  Following yesterday’s release of weekly jobless claims, which are volatile on a weekly basis, the markets are now anticipating the Fed will lower rates as soon as September, versus October while continuing to fully price in at least one additional cut by year’s end. As widely noted, monetary policy … Read more

JOB OPENINGS ARE STILL “ROBUST”

Job openings unexpectedly rose in April, the advance in openings was accompanied by a broad-based pickup in hiring which reached the highest levels in nearly a year.  The quit rate however fell, perhaps indicating a lack of confidence in finding a new job. BLS data indicate available positions increased to 7.39 million from an upwardly … Read more

WELCOME TO JUNE

Thirty days ago, equities were suggesting doom and despair.  Today the inverse as the S & P 500 has recaptured its April tariff induced decline as the S & P 500 had its best May since 1990.  Treasuries, however, fell in price, their first monthly drop this year.  The dollar declined for the fifth consecutive … Read more

A “SOLID” SEVEN YEAR TREASURY AUCTION

Short dated Treasuries rallied after a “solid” $44 billion seven year note auction.  The market is now again suggesting interest rates will be cut twice by year’s end.  The volatility in expectations is great and these expectations could radically change yet again following the interpretation of next week’s top tier data. The S & P … Read more

WHERE TO?

Where to?  Some will state that uncertainty is at levels never seen before.  Perhaps a more accurate statement that today’s uncertainty is the result of changes in the global trading system, a catalyst that has not been experienced in over 90 years.  During 1997, 2008, and 2020 similar statements were made that uncertainty was never … Read more

TODAY IS DIFFERENT THAN YESTERDAY

There are few that would debate that today is not different than yesterday.  Trade and tariffs are at the top of the list.  For approximately 80 years trade was a cost-effective foreign policy strategy, that was much cheaper than waging war, which in many cases was waged anyway. Immediately after WWII, the US resurrected former … Read more

A “LACKLUSTER” 20-YEAR TREASURY BOND AUCTION

Is the proverbial sandpile near a tipping point?  Worries about the ballooning deficit and the political anathema to tackle fiscal recklessness as it is akin to political suicide, impacted yesterday’s $16 billion 20-year Treasury auction.  Demand was regarded as “lackluster” sending yields the 20- and 30-year Treasury over 5%.  The benchmark 30-year is now yielding … Read more