The Treasury market got hit hard following a blockbuster May jobs report that lowered expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts. The 10-year Treasury yield climbed about 13 bps to around a 4.4% yield and swaps no longer price an interest rate cut before December. As recently as Thursday two money center banks were predicting an … Read more
May’s unemployment data is released at 8:30. The narrative is rising the economy is slowing at a pace that would permit the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates later this year. Perhaps the trajectory of interest rates is more important today than ever before given the gargantuan national debt of over $35 trillion and growing. … Read more
The ISM Service survey expanded in May by the most in nine months, exceeding all forecasts in a Blomberg survey of economists. The ISM business activity index—which parallels the group’s factory output gauge—had the largest monthly advance since March 2021 and is at the highest level since November 2022. The majority of respondents stated “employment … Read more
Job openings in April fell to the lowest level in over three years. Available positions decreased to 8.06 million from a downward adjusted number of 8.36 million in the prior month according to the JOLTS Job Openings Survey. The figure was below all estimates in a Bloomberg survey of economists. Placing the data into perspective, … Read more
The ISM Manufacturing gauge shrank in May at a faster pace than expected as a measure of new orders fell by the most in nearly two years. The headline data was the weakest in three months.For the moment, the weakness in the statistics is being interpreted as the large increase in the overnight rate is … Read more
The bond market rallied as the inflation data met expectations, but mega sized tech at one time declined about 2% before a late day surge. As noted last week, during the month of May mega cap shares advanced as Treasuries swooned, the inverse of the expectations.Overnight index swap contracts tied to upcoming Fed policy meetings … Read more
Markets were relatively quiet as the data largely met expectations. Equites declined about 0.5% and Treasuries rallied across the curve.Federal Reserve Bank of New York President John Williams said he expects inflation to continue falling in the second half of the year, adding that elevated borrowing costs are restraining the economy.Williams said that while inflation … Read more
Stocks and bonds fell as another weak sale of Treasuries raised concerns about swelling supply that could keep diving yields higher at time when the Federal Reserve is signaling rates will be higher for longer.Longer maturities led Treasury market losses with 30-year yields rising over nine basis points to over 4.75%.Bloomberg wrote yesterday the narrow … Read more
JP Morgan’s Jamie Dimon reiterated comments that today’s geopolitical environment is the most difficult and dangerous in at least two generations.I vaguely recall the “duck and cover” drills in the 1960’s, drills promoted by the government to protect children in schools if a nuclear attack occurred. To remind all, students were instructed to duck underneath … Read more
Equites were relatively quiet yesterday. Treasury yields, however, increased across the spectrum. Bloomberg reported yesterday that China sold a record amount of Treasuries during the first quarter. According to the US Treasury Department, Beijing sold a total of $53.3 billion of Treasuries and agency bonds, perhaps an indicator of a larger trade war lurking just … Read more
