First quarter GDP is released at 8:30. Consensus is expecting a first quarter growth rate of 2.3% albeit the range of estimates is wide with some suggesting a 1.5% growth rate while others a 3.1% pace. In early March consensus was predicating ...
Treasury prices have been surging. Yields are now around 90 basis points (0.90%) lower than they were about three months ago. In other words, yields have dropped over 33% with the large minority of this decline occurring since the March Fed meeting, the meeting...
It is widely accepted a major catalyst for the December rout was monetary policy and the Fed’s well telegraphed intentions of shrinking its balance sheet. ...
Many times I have opined about the complete breakdown of risk parity and cross correlated models, a strategy that has surged in popularity over the last 10 years, a strategy that many including the regulatory entities believed limited risks. Yesterday Stanford Bernstein stated this breakdown...
Third quarter GDP was revised to 3.2% rate from the previously reported 2.9% pace, the fastest growth in two years. Business investment remained weak but labor market progress and steady household purchases kept growth on tract ahead to the holiday shopping season....
Once again monthly US job gains fell outside the range of estimates. Strong back to back surges in nonfarm payrolls in June and July helped alleviate concerns that the labor market is faltering in response to slow growth. The May swoon which rattled all is...
The headline number for second quarter GDP was horrific. The economy only grew by 1.2%, half of the expected 2.5% increase. The primary causes, inventory destocking that subtracted about 1.16% from GDP—the greatest decrease since 3Q11—and a 3.2% drop in residential and business spending. This...
Will today’s release of second quarter GDP clarify the strength of the economy? In my view earnings have been mixed even as the overall data is suggesting greater strength than most had anticipated....
Is the narrative about to change about the strength of the economy and inflationary pressures? June’s core CPI rose by 0.2% for the third consecutive month, a rise from increased shelter costs. The core CPI is now up 2.3% from June 2015, matching the largest...
Equites have retraced the majority of their Brexit loss. In my view the swift decline and subsequent recovery is the result of algorithmic trading, trading based upon the cross correlation of weighted variables. It is not investing. As noted many times algorithmic trading now accounts...