The first print of third quarter GDP validated my long held view of today’s recessionary fears are vastly overblown. The economy expanded at a 1.9% annualized rate versus the consensus view of a 1.6% pace. Perhaps the most significant aspect of the report...
Equities led by the energy shares traded higher as all are awaiting new developments in the increasingly unpredictable Sino-American trade war. The 10-year Treasury closed around a three year low yield of 1.45% and ...
Initial estimates suggest the economy expanded at a 2.1% annual rate during the second quarter. Analysts had expected a 1.8% increase. The increase was the result of increased consumer spending. Excluding the volatile trade and ...
Initial estimates of second quarter GDP is released at 8:30. Analysts are expecting a 1.8% growth rate as the decline in inventories is expected to subtract about 1.3% from growth. This is the inverse from the first quarter when inventory ...
It has been an incredible six months. Few were able to predict how quickly the narrative changed from global synchronized recovery to global synchronized slowdown. Even fewer predicted how ...
Growth has slowed in the EU and China but increased unexpectedly in the US during the first quarter to a 3.2% rate. Today is the first revision of economy’s first quarter performance and analysts are expecting a ...
First quarter GDP is released at 8:30. Consensus is expecting a first quarter growth rate of 2.3% albeit the range of estimates is wide with some suggesting a 1.5% growth rate while others a 3.1% pace. In early March consensus was predicating ...
Treasury prices have been surging. Yields are now around 90 basis points (0.90%) lower than they were about three months ago. In other words, yields have dropped over 33% with the large minority of this decline occurring since the March Fed meeting, the meeting...
It is widely accepted a major catalyst for the December rout was monetary policy and the Fed’s well telegraphed intentions of shrinking its balance sheet. ...
Many times I have opined about the complete breakdown of risk parity and cross correlated models, a strategy that has surged in popularity over the last 10 years, a strategy that many including the regulatory entities believed limited risks. Yesterday Stanford Bernstein stated this breakdown...