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The first print of third quarter GDP validated my long held view of today’s recessionary fears are vastly overblown. The economy expanded at a 1.9% annualized rate versus the consensus view of a 1.6% pace. Perhaps the most significant aspect of the report...

Equity markets are pricing about a 90% probability the Fed will lower interest rates on Wednesday. In my view the global headwinds that pushed the Bank to cut rates in July and September have abated somewhat ...

Twenty five years ago one of the top tier data points was the Leading Index of Economic Indicators (LEI). It was a hard and fast rule that three consecutive declines in the LEI all but assured a recession will occur in the next ...

As widely expected the FOMC lowered interest rates by 0.25% to insulate the US from slowing global growth. The Committee also stopped shrinking the Fed’s balance sheet effective August 1 as compared to the previously announced ...

FRB Chair Powell testifies to Congress today about the state of the economy. The market has fully discounted a 0.25% reduction at the conclusion of the July FOMC meeting. I rhetorically ask will ...

The main focus for the markets this week looks to be Fed Chair Powell’s remarks before Congress. His remarks can greatly influence the markets. As widely noted and discounted, the markets are expecting at least a 0.25% reduction in the ...

Stocks advanced globally after the US and China reached a fresh truce in the trade war and agreed to resume talks towards a deal.. Gold and Treasuries retreated and oil is ...

As noted many times the markets are suggesting the overnight rate will be lowered 0.75% by year end, a very aggressive 33% reduction. Some were expecting a 0.50% drop at the July meeting only to have their hopes dashed yesterday when one of the...

Yesterday a veteran market professional commented “experience and common sense seem to be useless commodities in the world today.” I cannot agree more with this statement especially regarding the amount of negative interest rate debt outstanding…$12.5 trillion. The amount of negative real interest rate debt...