Paris Archives - Capitol Development Account

ALWAYS EXPECT THE UNEXPECTED

Markets, led by energy and defense, staged a strong advance following the Paris bombings. Some were expecting considerable selling, the result of the proverbial fear trade...

17 November, 2015

IS THE COMMODITY ROUT SUGGESTING GREATER WEAKNESS?

I write my comments the night before thus suggesting today’s remarks may be meaningless given the events that occurred Friday evening. Has the world forever changed? Did the European progressive movement end dramatically? How will Pairs affect the US presidential election and proposed economic policies?...

16 November, 2015

WHO IS RIGHT? 10-YEAR TREASURY INVESTORS OR ECONOMISTS

Typically bond investors and economists have little difference of opinion. Today the gap is huge. According to economists surveyed by the WSJ, the Fed Funds rate should climb to 2% in a two year period. Ten year treasury investors with a yield at 2.04% do...

14 October, 2015

The Fed’s Failure to Raise Rates at the September FOMC Meeting, Rather Than Being Reassuring, Simply Reinforced Concerns About the Health of the Global Economy.

Equites were encouraged by FRB Chair Yellen’s speech indicating a change in monetary policy may occur this year, a tantamount “all clear sign” for the economy. ...

28 September, 2015

By the Fed’s Own Admission and Forecast, 2015 May be Stronger Than Originally Anticipated, Especially Relating to Employment.

Will confusion now reign? Has the FOMC’s vail of omnipotence been pierced? Many are confused by the outcome of the recent Fed meeting. For almost a year the central bank has been suggesting a change in monetary policy is forthcoming. By the Fed’s own admission...

21 September, 2015

What Happens if Nominal Growth [Inflation Plus Real GDP] Spikes to 8%. Is This an Outlandish Thought?

Last weekend I watched Ground Hog Day, thinking is this not occurring in the equity markets? Every day it is the same narrative. The Fed may/may not increase interest rates. Oil is going to continue to drop. China is going to bring the...

15 September, 2015

Markets Traded Lower Friday on August’s Employment Data.

Markets traded lower Friday on August’s employment data. I believe the statistics were mixed and can be used to make a case for or against a rate hike at the upcoming FOMC meeting. I again ask does 0.25% really matter economically? Unfortunately it...

08 September, 2015

Although Weeks Leading Into Labor Day Are Typically Quiet, The Last Three Weeks Have Been The Opposite.

The weeks leading into Labor Day are historically quiet. To write the obvious, the last three weeks have been nothing but quiet. The must owned names are imploding. Oil was crushed then staged a 3 day 27% rally, the greatest since the Kuwaiti...

02 September, 2015

The Dow has Plunged Over 1000 Points and There Have Been Several High Profile Devaluations That are Questioning the Strength of the Global Economies and Commodities. What Now?

Early last week I opined the status quo was on the verge of major change. Little did I know how prophetic my words would have become? Since that statement; the Dow has plunged over 1000 points, there have been several high profile devaluations that are...

24 August, 2015

The Markets, the Economy, and Perhaps Global Order is on the Brink of Change.

Today the Minutes from the July FOMC meeting are released. As noted yesterday, the economic landscape is different today than that of three weeks ago. Housing and autos are showing considerable strength. China has devalued. Oil has plunged, falling by a record amount in July. ...

19 August, 2015