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Where to?  During the last 45 days it appears everything is going wrong at once.  Commodities led by a record plunge in oil, have been crushed.  In equities, the FAANG complex is down about 25%.  Debt markets have been rattled by the turmoil engulfing GE...

Led by tech, equites declined.  There are numerous uncertainties…the Fed, tariffs, earnings, inflation, political issues including impeachment and other threats, Brexit, etc. Oil however initially rose as Saudi Arabia unilaterally reduced oil exports by 500,000/day in December, calling for other producers to do the same, cutting...

Equity markets led by technology staged a strong post-election advance.  Gridlock is the new positive buzz word and yesterday’s era will last into perpetuity following October’s speedbump. Typically strong advances like the one experienced yesterday, the percentage of advancing S & P 500 stocks is over...

Equites rallied as oil climbed to a 2016 high after Iraq’s oil minister said major OPEC and other producers will meet possibly next month is a new push to freeze output.  US crude output also fell more than expected to the lowest level since October...

FRB Chair Yellen suggested yesterday the central bank might delay, but not abandon, planned interest rate increases in response to recent turmoil in financial markets. Yellen also stated the obvious that the turbulence had “significantly” tightened financial conditions by pushing down stock prices, pushing up...

Stocks led by energy rallied yesterday on the belief that monetary policy will remain unchanged until March 2016, perhaps under the simplistic guise of “bad is good.” September’s ISM non-manufacturing data disappointed albeit the data is consistent with GDP growth of 3.5%. Even allowing for...

I am firm believer in the comment to never over react to one single data release. I will make an exception. The chances of a rate hike by the Fed this year just fell exponentially given September’s labor report....

Stocks rallied yesterday as Treasuries tumbled as data suggested a resilient consumer.  Retail sales is suggesting third quarter growth can be potentially around 3.0%.  The two year treasury or the treasury most sensitive to monetary policy rose to the highest level since 2011.

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