Welcome to the second half of 2025. In less than one calendar quarter, we have seen the perhaps the most insane public policy announcement in years (“Liberation Day”), a massive market collapse from such, a complete policy reversal, a massive market reversal, an Israel-Iran flare-up that appears to have lasted twelve days, an oil spike, an oil drop, and a graveyard of failed predictions along the way.
I guess 85 days is a short time for this many opportunities at humility.
If the next 90 days is anything like the past 90 days, I guess the phrase “life is stranger than fiction” or “Hollywood can’t make this stuff up” is perhaps appropriate.
This holiday shortened trading week is filled with many top tier indicators including the ISM Manufacturing and ISM Services data, JOLTS Job Openings, and the BLS Employment report.
How will the data influence the ever-changing equity narrative? Will the widely anticipated tariff induced slowdown become evident in the data or will the time period be pushed out another month?
Similar to equities, the bond market has been whipsawed during the past three months as both bullish and bearish outlook have been fully espoused. The Treasury market is having its best first half advance in five years. Two months ago, Treasury prices were plunging and yields surging.
Currently, the markets are now pricing a 20% chance of July interest rate cut and at least two reductions by year’s end. Two months ago, the odds of just one reduction were low.
Today both the JOLTS and ISM Manufacturing data is released.
Last night the foreign markets were down. London was down 0.37%, Paris down 0.35% and Frankfurt down 0.46%. China was Japan down 1.24% and Hang Seng down 0.87%.
Futures are nominally lower. The “man bro” war between The President and Elon Musk has reemerged. Is this click bait or is this something of significance, the effect of the Senate potentially passing the “Big Beautiful Bill.”? The 10-year is up 11/32 to yield 4.19%.
