Optimism over AI initially outweighed doubts over whether the Fed will cut rates in December. NVDA delivered initially sending NASDAQ about 2% higher. Perhaps the appropriate question is whether the pending orders received by NVDA will materialize. Consensus is split as to whether the four largest technology companies can or have the ability to actually … Read more
A headline read yesterday “Nvidia earnings loom large, putting over 700 ETFs on edge.” NVDA’s massive capitalization—and the tentacles of its business lines to the largest companies in the world—has a profound influence on the direction of the indices. Writing the obvious if NVDA’s results are strong, projecting bigger sales and activity, then for immediacy … Read more
A selloff in the world’s largest tech names drove equities towards their longest slide since August, underscoring the narrow reliance on a handful of growth giants. As noted the other day, according to Bloomberg, 41 companies of the S & P 500 are considered tech/AI and are about 49% of the S & P 500’s … Read more
Equites were nervously lower yesterday ahead of NVDA’s earnings that is released tomorrow and September’ s jobs report posted on Thursday that could question the direction of monetary policy. Also released this week are, Home Depot’s, Target’s and Walmart’s earnings, results that can offer some insight as to how the government shutdown has impacted the … Read more
A clouded outlook for monetary policy is weighing upon all markets. For about 43 days all were flying almost blind making decisions in a vacuum because of the shutdown. A deluge of data is on the verge of being released but many may be initially skeptical believing the statistics could be dated or clouded. Little … Read more
Markets came under pressure over concerns about the direction of monetary policy. Will the FOMC lower rates again in four weeks? A ton of data is expected to be released in the coming weeks, a lot of it old, cloudy or suspect given the length of the government shutdown. To make any concrete statement is … Read more
In the $150 trillion global bond market, some are beginning to conclude that corporate bonds are safer than the sovereign debt of the world’s largest economies. Until recently and the AI mania, corporate America had been reducing indebtedness while many countries including the US continue to spend recklessly. Bloomberg reports the average debt-to output ratio … Read more
A deluge of data is about to hit the markets, the result of the ending of the longest government shutdown in history. As commented, data distortions might not be resolved until early next year. The Atlanta Fed’s GDP Now model is projecting a 4.0% GDP annual growth rate for the third quarter, significantly above the … Read more
It appears the longest government shutdown on record is about to end. The news sent both yields and equities higher. If the government is on the verge of reopening there will be a deluge of data, a flood that may be murky or dated, an environment that may not be fully clear until early 2026. … Read more
The cross currents are huge. The Atlanta Fed’s GDP Now model is projecting a 4.0% GDP for the third quarter of 2025. This signals economic expansion well above the long-term historical average of 3.2%. How accurate is this forecast given the government shutdown? A private sector consumer sentiment survey was released Friday indicating sentiment has … Read more
