The economy contracted at the start of the yar for the first time since 2022 on monumental pre-tariffs import surge. Initial estimates of first quarter GDP decreased at an annualized 0.3% rate in the first quarter, well below average growth of about 3% in the prior two years. Net exports subtracted a record 5% from … Read more
Initial estimates for first quarter GDP is released at 8:30. Will this data be insignificant given that the statistics were collected largely before the tariffs went into effect? Inventory accumulation is a positive addition to GDP. Inventory reduction is negative. Imports are negative to GDP and exports are positive addition. Yesterday’s trade data indicated a … Read more
Is the Administration using the threat of tariffs to manipulate the dollar to make US products more attractive abroad and foreign products more expensive at home? A dollar gauge is on track for its worst performance during the first 100 days of a presidency in data going back to the Noxon era when the US … Read more
This week has a number of events/releases that could influence the intermediate direction of the markets. Not in any particular order, META and MSFT report results on Wednesday, followed by AAPL and AMZN on Thursday. Writing the incredibly obvious, these are four of the largest companies in the world and their results could considerably influence … Read more
Equites climbed on hopes of interest rate reductions, the result of tariffs. Cleveland Fed Bank President Beth Hammack stated that officials could move on rates as early as June “if it has clear evidence of the economy’s direction.” Fed Governor Chrisopher Waller said “firms may begin laying off more workers if aggressive tariff levels are … Read more
Equites were volatile with different assessments of progress in trade talks. At one time the S & P 500 and NASDAQ were up over 3% following comments made by Treasury Secretary Bessent that the tariff standoff with China is unsustainable, expecting the situation to de-escalate. Treasuries and the dollar posted smaller moves after Monday’s volatile … Read more
Markets fell on thin holiday trading, the accepted catalyst were concerns that the President will fire FRB Chair Powell, perhaps ending the perceived perception of central bank independence. It is widely accepted the Administration has already instilled ever higher levels of uncertainty into the economic outlook with many stating yesterday’s global trade structure as dead. … Read more
Markets were mixed. Energy again led the market as oil approached $65/barrel as the Administration stated its intents to reduce Iran’s oil exports to zero. Iran is a major exporter to both India and China. Health insurers, however, declined following the shocking profit report and outlook from industry leader United HealthCare. Shares of UMH were … Read more
Equites were bifurcated yesterday as the NASDAQ fell about 3.1% on a combination of disappointing revenue outlooks and the trade war as well from remarks from FRB Chair Powell which broke no new ground, confirming that a “Fed Put” is not likely. The Dow fell about 1.6%. The selling sent 10 of the 11 S … Read more
The volatility in the bond market is extreme. The term premium—the extra return investors require to hold long notes over short ones—is at a level last seen in September 2014 according to the Federal Reserve Bank of NY. The 10-year Treasury is currently yielding around 4.39%, about 40 bps lower than its apex reached in … Read more
