The volatility in the bond market is extreme. The term premium—the extra return investors require to hold long notes over short ones—is at a level last seen in September 2014 according to the Federal Reserve Bank of NY. The 10-year Treasury is currently yielding around 4.39%, about 40 bps lower than its apex reached in … Read more
The only certainty to write is that uncertainty is at levels not experienced in many years. This too shall pass; perhaps however the ultimate outcome is unquantified. But despite all the uncertainty, the vast majority of Wall Street expect the S & P 500 to rally though the remainder of 2025. This level of optimism … Read more
The velocity and volatility are beyond insane. Equites surged the most since 2008 as the President stated he will pause some tariffs on dozens of countries for 90 days while at the same time levying even a greater rate on China. The S & P 500 surged 9.5% and the NASDAQ 100 an incredible 12% … Read more
Early yesterday equites surged at the fastest pace since 2022 and bonds fell after Treasury Secretary Bessent fueled hopes of trade deals. Treasuries dropped again in price following the most wildest day since March 2020. Currency fluctuations are the highest in over four years. Midafternoon, equities reversed all of the gains, with some indices falling … Read more
Life is stranger than fiction. All markets opened sharply lower only to stage a massive rebound erasing almost a 5% decline and posting a 3% gain on the erroneous headlines that the President had suspended all tariffs for 90 days. The news was carried on all major news outlets and within seven minutes, the S … Read more
Equites sank further on Friday and oil hit a four-year low as FRB Chair Powell signaled the damage of a trade war will be bigger than anticipated, with the potential effects including higher inflation and slower growth. Despite his possible ominous warning, Powell reiterated a wait and see approach on rates. Markets, however, have fully … Read more
Will today’s jobs data offer support to the markets? The equity market rout unleashed by the Administration’s tariff gambit has diverted all attention away from perhaps the most significant monthly economic release. Goldman Sach stated that hedge funds have dumped stocks at the greatest rate in 12 years during March, the result of unknown tariff … Read more
Will April 2, 2025 be remembered in a similar fashion as December 7, September 11, October 19 and 28th? Or will it be just another day, just regarded as noise? The initial reaction was one as a non-event. S & P futures were higher immediately following the announcement as it was first interpreted as though … Read more
There is intense volatility within a narrow range in the bond market. Last week, long dated yields were around the highest level since mid-February. Today they are around the lowest since early March. Additionally, the market is now discounting 76 bps of easing. Last week it was less than 45 bps. Are tariffs inflationary? Or … Read more
The Administration is sending mixed messages on what new tariffs will be unveiled tomorrow. Bloomberg writes “what and how they will announce on Wednesday have traders flustered as they try to position around the biggest risk confronting the markets in years.” It is widely believed [and perhaps already discounted] mega capitalized tech may be at … Read more
