At the conclusion of the FOMC meeting, the Committee will update its interest rate forecasts. How will it differ from the one issued in December? Will the Fed acknowledge the uncertainties around inflation from tariffs, where it is still predominantly more bark than bite? Will the Federal Reserve increase the neutral rate from around 2% … Read more
Data showed producer inflation data of 0.0% last month, compared with expectations of a 0.3% increase. Excluding food and energy, the PPI fell 0.1%, the first monthly decrease since July. The core was up 3.4% from a year earlier. However, categories that inform the Fed’s preferred inflation measure—the personal consumption expenditures price index—were largely firmer. … Read more
The narrative is rising about market volatility. In the matter of three weeks, Bloomberg writes the Magnificent Seven has declined about 18% and is down about 14% YTD. At the time of this writing, the NASDAQ 100 is off about 10% YTD and about 13.5% from its late December apex. The S & P 500 … Read more
Equities were again rattled after a further escalation of tariffs. The President stated he is increasing the steel and aluminum tariff on Canadian goods to 50% form 25% to retaliate against Canada’s move to place a 25% tariff on electricity sent to the US. At the time of this writing, the selling is considerably broader … Read more
The NASDAQ 100 had its worst day since 2022 wiping out over $1 trillion in value according to Bloomberg. This marquee index is on pace for the worst quarter since early 2022. The S & P 500 has closed below its 200-day moving average for the first time since November 2023. Its fall from its … Read more
February’s unemployment data was largely as expected, perhaps some hints of softening as for example a decline in the labor participation rate to a two-year low, but otherwise the data is largely in line. However, the fast-moving events of recent weeks have not been captured in February’s data. The real test for how public spending … Read more
The NASDAQ is close to correction territory as the Magnificent Seven continues to decline as evidence is lacking that AI investments are yet bearing fruit. Bloomberg writes the “there is a real unwinding of the momentum trade, with fears rising that perhaps momentum may now be in the other direction.” A basic premise for any … Read more
The ISM Service Index advanced in March rather than declining from February’s level. More importantly, the services employment index climbed for a third month to the highest since December 2021. Moreover, a measure of costs paid for material and services increased to one of the firmest readings since early 2023, underscoring the challenge Federal Reserve … Read more
The S & P 500 has reversed its post-election rally and part of this downturn was credited to tariffs. There is a near unanimity that tariffs will cause inflation and slow down the economy. How accurate is this view? There was also near unanimity [including the Federal Reserve and most money banks] that exponentially increasing … Read more
Equites reversed gains following a “tough discussion” between the US and Ukraine, raising concerns about geopolitical risks. The President stated that Zelenski “can come back when he is ready for peace.” Shares then again reversed themselves as the markets concluded the dust up between the US and Ukraine was only cheap TV theater and focused … Read more
