The CPI is expected to be released today even though the government is shutdown. A limited number of employees were recalled to compute the calculations as they are paramount for the calculations for next year’s social security’s COLA. Inflation is expected to increase by 0.4% in September. The core rate is expected to rise by … Read more
Earnings season for the mega sized tech companies commenced yesterday as TSLA reported mixed earnings, sending shares lower by 3.5%. As widely discussed, the mega techs have completely dominated the markets since COVID, if not before. The attention (hype) around AI is intense. Some mind-numbing data published by Citicorp about AI. According to the Bank, … Read more
Yesterday gold plunged by the most in a dozen years while silver had its biggest drop since 2021. Spot gold fell as much as 6.3% while spot silver dopped up to 8.7% before staging a nominal recovery. Both metals have rallied significantly throughout the year leaving the metals in perceived overbought territory. An issue at … Read more
Gold continued its unending run despite easing trade tensions and the prospect of the government reopening. Both developments should have dampened the demand for gold. Why the continued advance? Some have pointed out FOMO, referring to the fear of missing out sentiment. Others suggest the massive proliferation of gold ETFs creating an unsatiable demand for … Read more
At casual glance many appear exhausted, lacking any conviction. Trading patterns are entirely driven by headlines, not necessarily rational thought. The Treasury market for example. Thursday longer dated Treasuries rallied on concerns around large regional bank credit issues and resurgent trade tensions. The advance stalled Friday as the President made trade comments, comments that stabilized … Read more
Equites slid on the news that two regional banks took a credit charge on the same company, rising concerns about overall credit quality. The charge offs were the result of fraud to loans that invest in distressed commercial mortgages. While the charge offs are relatively insignificant in the scope of things and are believed to … Read more
Equites were mixed in the face of strong earnings from the mega sized financials and the potential of a longer “tariff truce” with China. Treasuries had a decent bid as both Japan and French debt rallied on potential optimism over budget concessions in the respected countries. Gold hovered around record levels on fiscal concerns in … Read more
Perhaps the two largest drivers in today’s market are AI and jobs. Addressing AI, who will be tomorrow’s Yellow Pages, Lucent or Northern Telecom? Lucent and Northern Telecom were formerly must own companies of 25 years ago that went into bankruptcy after the internet bubble popped. And then there are the Yellow Pages which have … Read more
Third quarter earnings season commences next week with Wall Stret lenders including Goldman Sachs and Citicorp releasing results. TSLA is the first of the Magnificent Seven to report on October 22 followed by GOOG, MSFT and META on October 29. Given how lopsided the expectations have become and how lofty valuations are, and the lack … Read more
Will the narrative begin to rise about the shutdown? Some are suggesting October 15 could be a pivotal date as this is when federal paychecks are deposited into one’s account, a deposit that may not occur. October 18 is a rally against the Trump Administration is scheduled. Will these events have any impact? Fiscal cracks … Read more
