Markets were quietly nervous yesterday as many are uncertain over the pace of easing in 2026. Wariness is also growing about the sustainability of a further AI driven rally. Kevin Hassert, a top candidate to take over the role of Fed chair, said it would be irresponsible for the Federal Reserve to lay out a … Read more
It is all but assured that the FOMC will lower rates by 0.25% on Wednesday. Perhaps the most significant outcome of the meeting will be each individual member’s outlook for economic growth, inflation and the neutral interest rate…aka the dot plot. Dissention is great amongst Committee members, the result of the tectonic changes that are … Read more
As widely noted and discussed, the four largest companies in the S & P 500 have indicated that they will spend between 25% and 50% of revenue on AI capital expenditures. Such spending should cause many to ask some simplistic questions. Is this possible? Will the products be available? What will be the return of … Read more
A slew of economic data did little to alter the view that the Fed will lower rates next week. Equites traded higher while bond yields dropped. Bloomberg writes that about 350 companies in the S & P 500 advance despite weakness in most mega caps as MSFT lowered expectations for getting “business customers to spend … Read more
Commenting on perhaps two of today’s driving narratives is difficult; monetary policy/tariffs and AI spending. How are they interconnected? The markets are suggesting an 80% chance of an interest rate cut next week. One of the largest questions that cannot be answered but is a primary determinant of longer-term Treasury yields, what is the neutral … Read more
The start of historically strong month, most markets declined amid a steep selloff in cryptocurrencies. A rout in Japanese debt rippled through global bonds which caused the US yield curve to be its steepest since early 2022. Commenting further about Japanese debt, Japan’s benchmark yields hit the highest since 2008 on signs that the nation … Read more
Optimism is surging the FOMC will lower rates next week and perhaps three more times in 2026. This outlook is/was the catalyst for last week’s markets advance As noted many times, over the last five years the disconnect between market expectations and Fed policy was great. Moreover, there was/is also a large difference between what … Read more
A major question at hand does the present valuation of NVDA reflect all the good news and then some? NVDA is down about 25% in about 20 trading days. CNBC states that the company has declined almost $1 trillion in this short period, a decline that has accelerated after a “really good quarter and bullish … Read more
Fed Reserve Governor Christopher Waller fueled optimism that an interest rate cut will occur next month. This comment on top of Friday’s remark from the NY Fed President echoing a similar sentiment, has reenergized equites. At the time of this writing the market is now suggesting a 80% chance of further easing in December, up … Read more
Equites had a good day on Friday as over 450 companies in the S & P 500 advanced, the catalyst of which was a Federal Reserve comment that an interest rate cut remains a possibility. Sentiment however is fragile, with Bitcoin set for its worst month since a string of corporate collapses rocked the sector … Read more
