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CPI LOWER THAN EXPECTED FOR THE FOURTH CONSECUTIVE MONTH

Underlying inflation rose in May less than forecast for the fourth month in a row, suggesting companies are largely holding back on passing higher tariff costs through to consumers. The prevailing narrative is that companies massively increased inventories before the tariffs were enacted and firms are now working off these stores, hoping to replenish supplies … Read more

MAY’S CPI RELEASED AT 8:30

The narrative is beginning to rise about the reliance of a small number of stocks that has underpinned the “V” shape recovery since the tariff induced April swoon.  Bloomberg again quantifies the concentration…about 50% of the returns since April is in 10 names and 33% of the gains are from 5 names.  The Newswire further … Read more

A QUIET DAY

Yesterday was a relatively quiet day.  As widely noted, the April tariff induced equity swoon has been reversed with tech doing almost all of the heavy lifting.   According to Bloomberg the “giants” are up about 33% further stating that not all of the “heavy weights” are pulling their fair share.  This comment further morphed into … Read more

WILL THE DATA DETERIORATE NEXT MONTH?

Last week’s data was not the doom and gloom statistics of the prevailing market narrative.  The market narrative is now stating the deterioration in the economy will now start next month. The labor market data is consistent with the solid growth experienced thus far this year.  June’s employment gains were greater than expected, however the … Read more

MAY’S UNEMPLOYMENT DATA RELEASED AT 8:30

What will today’s jobs data suggest?  Following yesterday’s release of weekly jobless claims, which are volatile on a weekly basis, the markets are now anticipating the Fed will lower rates as soon as September, versus October while continuing to fully price in at least one additional cut by year’s end. As widely noted, monetary policy … Read more

JOB OPENINGS ARE STILL “ROBUST”

Job openings unexpectedly rose in April, the advance in openings was accompanied by a broad-based pickup in hiring which reached the highest levels in nearly a year.  The quit rate however fell, perhaps indicating a lack of confidence in finding a new job. BLS data indicate available positions increased to 7.39 million from an upwardly … Read more

IS THERE THE BEGINNING OF A “BUYERS STRIKE” FOR LONG DATED TREASURIES?

Several of the largest and most prestigious fixed income firms—DoubleLine Capital, TCW and PIMCO—are either avoiding or shorting the 30-year Treasury, wary of the unending growth of the federal deficit.  The firms instead are buying the shortest maturities. As widely noted, Warren Buffet is the largest holder of short, dated Treasuries, defined as less than … Read more

WELCOME TO JUNE

Thirty days ago, equities were suggesting doom and despair.  Today the inverse as the S & P 500 has recaptured its April tariff induced decline as the S & P 500 had its best May since 1990.  Treasuries, however, fell in price, their first monthly drop this year.  The dollar declined for the fifth consecutive … Read more

A “SOLID” SEVEN YEAR TREASURY AUCTION

Short dated Treasuries rallied after a “solid” $44 billion seven year note auction.  The market is now again suggesting interest rates will be cut twice by year’s end.  The volatility in expectations is great and these expectations could radically change yet again following the interpretation of next week’s top tier data. The S & P … Read more